# Adaptive Diffusion Posterior Sampling for Data and Model Fusion of Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.12635 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12635/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 68 of its 96 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 68)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [DeepONet: Learning nonlinear operators for identifying differential equations based on the universal approximation theorem of operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03193/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Posterior Sampling for General Noisy Inverse Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14687/) (2022)
- [Learning to Simulate Complex Physics with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09405/) (2020)
- [Learning Mesh-Based Simulation with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03409/) (2020)
- [Deep Bayesian Active Learning with Image Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.02910/) (2017)
- [Graph Transformer Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.06455/) (2019)
- [Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01010/) (2021)
- [Message Passing Neural PDE Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03376/) (2022)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Transolver: A Fast Transformer Solver for PDEs on General Geometries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02366/) (2024)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05732/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [Data-Driven Forecasting of High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems with Long Short-Term Memory Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07486/) (2018)
- [Combining Differentiable PDE Solvers and Graph Neural Networks for Fluid Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.04439/) (2020)
- [Backpropagation Algorithms and Reservoir Computing in Recurrent Neural Networks for the Forecasting of Complex Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05266/) (2019)
- [Scalable Transformer for PDE Surrogate Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17560/) (2023)
- [DiffusionPDE: Generative PDE-Solving Under Partial Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17763/) (2024)
- [Transformers for Modeling Physical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03957/) (2020)
- [Score-based Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10574/) (2023)
- [Learned Coarse Models for Efficient Turbulence Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.15275/) (2021)
- [Physics-Informed Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14404/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Christoffel-DPS: Optimal sensor placement in diffusion posterior sampling for arbitrary distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06861/) (2026)
- [Patched Flow Matching: Generative Wall-Pressure Reconstruction Beyond Training-Domain Scales from Sparse Sensors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22084/) (2026)
- [Generative Atmospheric Super-Resolution from Heterogeneous In Situ Observations through Composable Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.29027/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

High-fidelity numerical simulations of chaotic, high dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are computationally expensive, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. Most surrogate models for such systems are deterministic, for example when neural operators are involved. However, deterministic models often fail to capture the intrinsic distributional uncertainty of chaotic systems. This work presents a surrogate modeling formulation that leverages generative machine learning, where a deep learning diffusion model is used to probabilistically forecast turbulent flows over long horizons. We introduce a multi-step autoregressive diffusion objective that significantly enhances long-rollout stability compared to standard single-step training. To handle complex, unstructured geometries, we utilize a multi-scale graph transformer architecture incorporating diffusion preconditioning and voxel-grid pooling. More importantly, our modeling framework provides a unified platform that also predicts spatiotemporally important locations for sensor placement, either via uncertainty estimates or through an error-estimation module. Finally, the observations of the ground truth state at these dynamically varying sensor locations are assimilated using diffusion posterior sampling requiring no retraining of the surrogate model. We present our methodology on two-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic turbulence and for a flow over a backwards-facing step, demonstrating its utility in forecasting, adaptive sensor placement, and data assimilation for high dimensional chaotic systems.