# Beyond Accuracy: Reliability and Uncertainty Estimation in Convolutional Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10731 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10731/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Deep Bayesian Active Learning with Image Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.02910/) (2017)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.1897/) (2014)
- [Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04392/) (2021)
- [A Comprehensive guide to Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network with Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.02731/) (2019)
- [Towards safe deep learning: accurately quantifying biomarker uncertainty in neural network predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.08640/) (2018)
- [Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06494/) (2024)
- [Is Complexity Required for Neural Network Pruning? A Case Study on Global Magnitude Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14624/) (2022)
- [Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03580/) (2022)
- [UTOPIA: Universally Trainable Optimal Prediction Intervals Aggregation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16549/) (2023)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks and Vision Transformers for Fashion MNIST Classification: A Literature Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03478/) (2024)
- [Conformal Prediction on Quantifying Uncertainty of Dynamic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10459/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become integral to a wide range of scientific and practical applications due to their flexibility and strong predictive performance. Despite their accuracy, however, DNNs frequently exhibit poor calibration, often assigning overly confident probabilities to incorrect predictions. This limitation underscores the growing need for integrated mechanisms that provide reliable uncertainty estimation. In this article, we compare two prominent approaches for uncertainty quantification: a Bayesian approximation via Monte Carlo Dropout and the nonparametric Conformal Prediction framework. Both methods are assessed using two convolutional neural network architectures; H-CNN VGG16 and GoogLeNet, trained on the Fashion-MNIST dataset. The empirical results show that although H-CNN VGG16 attains higher predictive accuracy, it tends to exhibit pronounced overconfidence, whereas GoogLeNet yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Conformal Prediction additionally demonstrates consistent validity by producing statistically guaranteed prediction sets, highlighting its practical value in high-stakes decision-making contexts. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of evaluating model performance beyond accuracy alone and contribute to the development of more reliable and trustworthy deep learning systems.