# Fuel Gauge: Estimating Chain-of-Thought Length Ahead of Time in Large Multimodal Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10335 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10335/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Multimodal reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 24 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Multimodal reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/multimodal-reasoning/)
- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/vlm-benchmarks-and-visual-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05101/) (2017)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [The WMDP Benchmark: Measuring and Reducing Malicious Use With Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03218/) (2024)
- [GLM-4.5: Agentic, Reasoning, and Coding (ARC) Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06471/) (2025)
- [A Long Way to Go: Investigating Length Correlations in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03716/) (2023)
- [Extracting Latent Steering Vectors from Pretrained Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05124/) (2022)
- [When More is Less: Understanding Chain-of-Thought Length in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07266/) (2025)
- [Thoughts Are All Over the Place: On the Underthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18585/) (2025)
- [SuperGPQA: Scaling LLM Evaluation across 285 Graduate Disciplines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14739/) (2025)
- [Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.12501/) (2025)
- [Intern-S1: A Scientific Multimodal Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15763/) (2025)
- [LLM Unlearning via Neural Activation Redirection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07218/) (2025)
- [OptimalThinkingBench: Evaluating Over and Underthinking in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.13141/) (2025)
- [On Effects of Steering Latent Representation for Large Language Model Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06223/) (2024)
- [Revisiting Overthinking in Long Chain-of-Thought from the Perspective of Self-Doubt](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23480/) (2025)
- [vTensor: Flexible Virtual Tensor Management for Efficient LLM Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15309/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reasoning Large Multi-modality Models (LMMs) have become the de facto choice for many applications. However, these models rely on a Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process that is lengthy and unpredictable at runtime, often resulting in inefficient use of computational resources (due to memory fragmentation) and sub-optimal accuracy (due to under- and over-thinking). We observe empirically that the CoT process follows a very simple form, whose behavior is independent of the specific generated samples. This suggests that the CoT length can be estimated ahead of time based on a hidden parameter representing the amount of "fuel" available to support the reasoning process. Based on this insight, we propose Fuel Gauge, the first method which extracts this hidden signal and predicts CoT length ahead of time. We demonstrate the utility on the Fuel Gauge on two downstream tasks: predictive KV cache allocation, which addresses memory fragmentation in LMM serving systems, and CoT length modulation, which mitigates under-thinking and over-thinking. Extensive experiments on LMMs across text-only, image-text, and video-text question answering benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness, generalizability, and practical value of our Fuel Gauge. For example, on the GPQA-Diamond benchmark, our Fuel Gauge achieves less than half the CoT length prediction error compared to the baseline; this translates into a 13.37x reduction in the memory allocation frequency.