# Decision-Aware Uncertainty Evaluation of Vision-Language Model-Based Early Action Anticipation for Human-Robot Interaction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10061 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10061/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Embodied and 3D vision-language models, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 6 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [Embodied and 3D vision-language models](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/embodied-and-3d-vision-language-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [A Novel Characterization of the Population Area Under the Risk Coverage Curve (AURC) and Rates of Finite Sample Estimators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15361/) (2024)
- [Enhancing accuracy of uncertainty estimation in appearance-based gaze tracking with probabilistic evaluation and calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14894/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Task-Driven 3D Printability Assistance via Geometry- and Knowledge-Grounded LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.22128/) (2026)
- [Language-Augmented Video Action Anticipation: Design Fundamentals, Benchmarks, and Open Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31665/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Robots in shared workspaces must interpret human actions from partial, ambiguous observations, where overconfident early predictions can lead to unsafe or disruptive interaction. This challenge is amplified in egocentric views, where viewpoint changes and occlusions increase perceptual noise and ambiguity. As a result, downstream human-robot interaction modules require not only an action hypothesis but also a trustworthy estimate of confidence under partial observation. Recent vision-language model-based approaches have been proposed for short-term action recognition due to their open-vocabulary and context-aware reasoning, but their uncertainty reliability in the temporal-prefix regime is largely uncharacterized. We present the first systematic evaluation of uncertainty in vision-language model-based short-term action recognition for human-robot interaction. We introduce a temporal-prefix evaluation protocol and metrics for calibration and selective prediction. We also characterize miscalibration patterns and failure modes under partial observations. Our study provides the missing reliability evidence needed to use vision-language model predictions in confidence-gated human-robot interaction modules.