# Probing the Reliability of Driving VLMs: From Inconsistent Responses to Grounded Temporal Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09512 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09512/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Chain-of-thought reasoning for driving, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 60 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Chain-of-thought reasoning for driving](https://mlsanity.com/lr/chain-of-thought-reasoning-for-driving/)
- End-to-end autonomous driving / [VLMs for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/driving/vlms-for-autonomous-driving/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 60)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Improved Baselines with Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03744/) (2023)
- [Making the V in VQA Matter: Elevating the Role of Image Understanding in Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00837/) (2016)
- [VQA: Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.00468/) (2015)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [Qwen-VL: A Versatile Vision-Language Model for Understanding, Localization, Text Reading, and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12966/) (2023)
- [MMBench: Is Your Multi-modal Model an All-around Player?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06281/) (2023)
- [CIDEr: Consensus-based Image Description Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.5726/) (2014)
- [MME: A Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark for Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13394/) (2023)
- [Video-LLaMA: An Instruction-tuned Audio-Visual Language Model for Video Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02858/) (2023)
- [Video-MME: The First-Ever Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark of Multi-modal LLMs in Video Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21075/) (2024)
- [BLEURT: Learning Robust Metrics for Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04696/) (2020)
- [SPICE: Semantic Propositional Image Caption Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.08822/) (2016)
- [BARTScore: Evaluating Generated Text as Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11520/) (2021)
- [Yi: Open Foundation Models by 01.AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04652/) (2024)
- [LongVideoBench: A Benchmark for Long-context Interleaved Video-Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15754/) (2024)
- [GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17080/) (2023)
- [DriveLM: Driving with Graph Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14150/) (2023)
- [GPTScore: Evaluate as You Desire](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04166/) (2023)
- [Vista: A Generalizable Driving World Model with High Fidelity and Versatile Controllability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17398/) (2024)
- [Driving into the Future: Multiview Visual Forecasting and Planning with World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17918/) (2023)
- [Knowledge Conflicts for LLMs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08319/) (2024)
- [NuScenes-QA: A Multi-modal Visual Question Answering Benchmark for Autonomous Driving Scenario](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14836/) (2023)
- [Driving with LLMs: Fusing Object-Level Vector Modality for Explainable Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01957/) (2023)
- [EMMA: End-to-End Multimodal Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23262/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [ObsDriveBench: Benchmarking Multimodal Understanding under Adverse Weather with Observability Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.23537/) (2026)
- [Invaria: Learning Scale and Density Invariance in Point Clouds via Next-Resolution Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15923/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A reliable driving assistant should provide consistent responses based on temporally grounded reasoning derived from observed information. In this work, we investigate whether Vision-Language Models (VLMs), when applied as driving assistants, can response consistantly and understand how present observations shape future outcomes, or whether their outputs merely reflect patterns memorized during training without temporally grounded reasoning. While recent efforts have integrated VLMs into autonomous driving, prior studies typically emphasize scene understanding and instruction generation, implicitly assuming that strong visual interpretation naturally enables consistant future reasoning and thus ensures reliable decision-making, a claim we critically examine. We focus on two major challenges limiting VLM reliability in this setting: response inconsistency, where minor input perturbations yield different answers or, in some cases, responses degenerate toward near-random guessing, and limited temporal reasoning, in which models fail to reason and align sequential events from current observations, often resulting in incorrect or even contradictory responses. Moreover, we find that models with strong visual understanding do not necessarily perform best on tasks requiring temporal reasoning, indicating a tendency to over-rely on pretrained patterns rather than modeling temporal dynamics. To address these issues, we adopt existing evaluation methods and introduce FutureVQA, a human-annotated benchmark dataset specifically designed to assess future scene reasoning. In addition, we propose a simple yet effective self-supervised tuning approach with chain-of-thought reasoning that improves both consistency and temporal reasoning without requiring temporal labels.