# Drift-to-Action Controllers: Budgeted Interventions with Online Risk Certificates

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08578 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08578/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [Learning without Forgetting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09282/) (2016)
- [iCaRL: Incremental Classifier and Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.07725/) (2016)
- [Gradient Episodic Memory for Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08840/) (2017)
- [Datasheets for Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09010/) (2018)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Moment Matching for Multi-Source Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.01754/) (2018)
- [Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08731/) (2019)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Closing the AI Accountability Gap: Defining an End-to-End Framework for Internal Algorithmic Auditing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00973/) (2020)
- [Detecting and Correcting for Label Shift with Black Box Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03916/) (2018)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06673/) (2020)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [Revisiting Classifier Two-Sample Tests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.06545/) (2016)
- [Failing Loudly: An Empirical Study of Methods for Detecting Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11953/) (2018)
- [Two-sample Testing Using Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.06239/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15474/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deployed machine learning systems face distribution drift, yet most monitoring pipelines stop at alarms and leave the response underspecified under labeling, compute, and latency constraints. We introduce Drift2Act, a drift-to-action controller that treats monitoring as constrained decision-making with explicit safety. Drift2Act combines a sensing layer that maps unlabeled monitoring signals to a belief over drift types with an active risk certificate that queries a small set of delayed labels from a recent window to produce an anytime-valid upper bound Ut(δ) on current risk. The certificate gates operation: if Ut(δ) ≤ τ, the controller selects low-cost actions (e.g., recalibration or test-time adaptation); if Ut(δ) > τ, it activates abstain/handoff and escalates to rollback or retraining under cooldowns. In a realistic streaming protocol with label delay and explicit intervention costs, Drift2Act achieves near-zero safety violations and fast recovery at moderate cost on WILDS Camelyon17, DomainNet, and a controlled synthetic drift stream, outperforming alarm-only monitoring, adapt-always adaptation, schedule-based retraining, selective prediction alone, and an ablation without certification. Overall, online risk certification enables reliable drift response and reframes monitoring as decision-making with safety.