# Towards plausibility in time series counterfactual explanations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08349 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08349/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [The UCR Time Series Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.07758/) (2018)
- [InceptionTime: Finding AlexNet for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04939/) (2019)
- [ROCKET: Exceptionally fast and accurate time series classification using random convolutional kernels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13051/) (2019)
- [Soft-DTW: a Differentiable Loss Function for Time-Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01541/) (2017)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) 2.0: A Manifesto of Open Challenges and Interdisciplinary Research Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19775/) (2023)
- [HIVE-COTE 2.0: a new meta ensemble for time series classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07551/) (2021)
- [Instance-based Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13211/) (2020)
- [Counterfactual Explanations for Machine Learning on Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.10781/) (2020)
- [OptunaHub: A Platform for Black-Box Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02798/) (2025)
- [M-CELS: Counterfactual Explanation for Multivariate Time Series Data Guided by Learned Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02649/) (2024)
- [Fast, Interpretable, and Deterministic Time Series Classification With a Bag-of-Receptive-Fields](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18029/) (2023)
- [Shapelet-based Model-agnostic Counterfactual Local Explanations for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01343/) (2024)
- [Classification of Arrhythmia by Using Deep Learning with 2-D ECG Spectral Image Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.06902/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [IMFACT: Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series via Intrinsic Mode Function Substitution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.04777/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present a new method for generating plausible counterfactual explanations for time series classification problems. The approach performs gradient-based optimization directly in the input space. To enforce plausibility, we integrate soft-DTW (dynamic time warping) alignment with k-nearest neighbors from the target class, which effectively encourages the generated counterfactuals to adopt a realistic temporal structure. The overall optimization objective is a multi-faceted loss function that balances key counterfactual properties. It incorporates losses for validity, sparsity, and proximity, alongside the novel soft-DTW-based plausibility component. We conduct an evaluation of our method against several strong reference approaches, measuring the key properties of the generated counterfactuals across multiple dimensions. The results demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance in validity while significantly outperforming existing approaches in distributional alignment with the target class, indicating superior temporal realism. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis highlights the critical limitations of existing methods in preserving realistic temporal structure. This work shows that the proposed method consistently generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers that are not only valid but also highly plausible and consistent with temporal patterns.