# TRIAGE: Type-Routed Interventions via Aleatoric-Epistemic Gated Estimation in Robotic Manipulation and Adaptive Perception -- Don't Treat All Uncertainty the Same

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08128 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08128/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Domain Randomization for Transferring Deep Neural Networks from Simulation to the Real World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06907/) (2017)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Simple Online and Realtime Tracking with a Deep Association Metric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07402/) (2017)
- [ByteTrack: Multi-Object Tracking by Associating Every Detection Box](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06864/) (2021)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [Learning Dexterous In-Hand Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.00177/) (2018)
- [Sim-to-Real Transfer of Robotic Control with Dynamics Randomization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.06537/) (2017)
- [Learning Quadrupedal Locomotion over Challenging Terrain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11251/) (2020)
- [BranchyNet: Fast Inference via Early Exiting from Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01686/) (2017)
- [MOT16: A Benchmark for Multi-Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.00831/) (2016)
- [RMA: Rapid Motor Adaptation for Legged Robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04034/) (2021)
- [Learning agile and dynamic motor skills for legged robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.08652/) (2019)
- [FairMOT: On the Fairness of Detection and Re-Identification in Multiple Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.01888/) (2020)
- [Dynamic Neural Networks: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.04906/) (2021)
- [Neural Network Dynamics for Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning with Model-Free Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.02596/) (2017)
- [Orbit: A Unified Simulation Framework for Interactive Robot Learning Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04195/) (2023)
- [DanceTrack: Multi-Object Tracking in Uniform Appearance and Diverse Motion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14690/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Neural Networks for Efficient Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07811/) (2017)
- [MOTRv2: Bootstrapping End-to-End Multi-Object Tracking by Pretrained Object Detectors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.09791/) (2022)
- [MeMOT: Multi-Object Tracking with Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.16761/) (2022)
- [MeMOTR: Long-Term Memory-Augmented Transformer for Multi-Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15700/) (2023)
- [A Deeper Look into Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.09308/) (2022)
- [Safe Reinforcement Learning with Model Uncertainty Estimates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.08700/) (2018)
- [Learning Conformal Abstention Policies for Adaptive Risk Management in Large Language and Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06884/) (2025)
- [TRACER: Trajectory Risk Aggregation for Critical Episodes in Agentic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11409/) (2026)
- [Learnable Conformal Prediction with Context-Aware Nonconformity Functions for Robotic Planning and Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21955/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [VLM Judges Can Rank but Cannot Score: Task-Dependent Uncertainty in Multimodal Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25235/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.25760/) (2026)
- [CURA: Certified Runtime Alarms for Computer-Use Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27808/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Most uncertainty-aware robotic systems collapse prediction uncertainty into a single scalar score and use it to trigger uniform corrective responses. This aggregation obscures whether uncertainty arises from corrupted observations or from mismatch between the learned model and the true system dynamics. As a result, corrective actions may be applied to the wrong component of the closed loop, degrading performance relative to leaving the policy unchanged. We introduce a lightweight post hoc framework that decomposes uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components and uses these signals to regulate system responses at inference time. Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated from deviations in the observation distribution using a Mahalanobis density model, while epistemic uncertainty is detected using a noise robust forward dynamics ensemble that isolates model mismatch from measurement corruption. The two signals remain empirically near orthogonal during closed loop execution and enable type specific responses. High aleatoric uncertainty triggers observation recovery, while high epistemic uncertainty moderates control actions. The same signals also regulate adaptive perception by guiding model capacity selection during tracking inference. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements across both control and perception tasks. In robotic manipulation, the decomposed controller improves task success from 59.4% to 80.4% under compound perturbations and outperforms a combined uncertainty baseline by up to 21.0%. In adaptive tracking inference on MOT17, uncertainty-guided model selection reduces average compute by 58.2% relative to a fixed high capacity detector while preserving detection quality within 0.4%. Code and demo videos are available at https://divake.github.io/uncertainty-decomposition/.