# To Predict or Not to Predict? Towards reliable uncertainty estimation in the presence of noise

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07330 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.07330/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09437/) (2020)
- [Revisiting Mahalanobis Distance for Transformer-Based Out-of-Domain Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03778/) (2021)
- [A Survey on Out-of-Distribution Detection in NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.03236/) (2023)
- [ReadMe++: Benchmarking Multilingual Language Models for Multi-Domain Readability Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14463/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty-aware abstention in medical diagnosis based on medical texts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18050/) (2025)
- [Empirical Optimal Risk to Quantify Model Trustworthiness for Failure Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03179/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study examines the role of uncertainty estimation (UE) methods in multilingual text classification under noisy and non-topical conditions. Using a complex-vs-simple sentence classification task across several languages, we evaluate a range of UE techniques against a range of metrics to assess their contribution to making more robust predictions. Results indicate that while methods relying on softmax outputs remain competitive in high-resource in-domain settings, their reliability declines in low-resource or domain-shift scenarios. In contrast, Monte Carlo dropout approaches demonstrate consistently strong performance across all languages, offering more robust calibration, stable decision thresholds, and greater discriminative power even under adverse conditions. We further demonstrate the positive impact of UE on non-topical classification: abstaining from predicting the 10% most uncertain instances increases the macro F1 score from 0.81 to 0.85 in the Readme task. By integrating UE with trustworthiness metrics, this study provides actionable insights for developing more reliable NLP systems in real-world multilingual environments. See https://github.com/Nouran-Khallaf/To-Predict-or-Not-to-Predict