# SCP: Spatial Causal Prediction in Video

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03944 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03944/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Spatial and embodied reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 59 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Spatial and embodied reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/spatial-and-embodied-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 59)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DINOv2: Learning Robust Visual Features without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07193/) (2023)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [Qwen Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16609/) (2023)
- [PIQA: Reasoning about Physical Commonsense in Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11641/) (2019)
- [LLaVA-OneVision: Easy Visual Task Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03326/) (2024)
- [Wan: Open and Advanced Large-Scale Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20314/) (2025)
- [World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10122/) (2018)
- [InternVL3.5: Advancing Open-Source Multimodal Models in Versatility, Reasoning, and Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18265/) (2025)
- [Transformers in Vision: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01169/) (2021)
- [OpenAI GPT-5 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.03267/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13549/) (2023)
- [Vision-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06749/) (2025)
- [A Comprehensive Overview of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06435/) (2023)
- [NExT-GPT: Any-to-Any Multimodal LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.05519/) (2023)
- [Thinking in Space: How Multimodal Large Language Models See, Remember, and Recall Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14171/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-VL2: Mixture-of-Experts Vision-Language Models for Advanced Multimodal Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10302/) (2024)
- [Qwen3-Omni Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.17765/) (2025)
- [Ego-Exo4D: Understanding Skilled Human Activity from First- and Third-Person Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18259/) (2023)
- [CLEVRER: CoLlision Events for Video REpresentation and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01442/) (2019)
- [YouTube-8M: A Large-Scale Video Classification Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.08675/) (2016)
- [LLaVA-OneVision-1.5: Fully Open Framework for Democratized Multimodal Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23661/) (2025)
- [Spatial-MLLM: Boosting MLLM Capabilities in Visual-based Spatial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23747/) (2025)
- [NVILA: Efficient Frontier Visual Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04468/) (2024)
- [MiniCPM-V 4.5: Cooking Efficient MLLMs via Architecture, Data, and Training Recipe](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.18154/) (2025)
- [MMSI-Bench: A Benchmark for Multi-Image Spatial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23764/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Spatial reasoning, the ability to understand spatial relations, causality, and dynamic evolution, is central to human intelligence and essential for real-world applications such as autonomous driving and robotics. Existing studies, however, primarily assess models on visible spatio-temporal understanding, overlooking their ability to infer unseen past or future spatial states. In this work, we introduce Spatial Causal Prediction (SCP), a new task paradigm that challenges models to reason beyond observation and predict spatial causal outcomes. We further construct SCP-Bench, a benchmark comprising 2,500 QA pairs across 1,181 videos spanning diverse viewpoints, scenes, and causal directions, to support systematic evaluation. Through comprehensive experiments on {23} state-of-the-art models, we reveal substantial gaps between human and model performance, limited temporal extrapolation, and weak causal grounding. We further analyze key factors influencing performance and propose perception-enhancement and reasoning-guided strategies toward advancing spatial causal intelligence. The project page is https://guangstrip.github.io/SCP-Bench.