# Geographically-Weighted Weakly Supervised Bayesian High-Resolution Transformer for 200m Resolution Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Mapping and Uncertainty Estimation using Sentinel-1, RCM, and AMSR2 Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03503 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03503/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 79 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [Deep High-Resolution Representation Learning for Visual Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07919/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [TerraMind: Large-Scale Generative Multimodality for Earth Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11171/) (2025)
- [Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts for Remote Sensing Image Super-Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09654/) (2025)
- [Seasonal Forecasting of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice with State Space Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.10665/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Although high-resolution mapping of pan-Arctic sea ice with reliable corresponding uncertainty is essential for operational sea ice concentration (SIC) charting, it is a difficult task due to key challenges, such as the subtle nature of ice signature features, inexact SIC labels, model uncertainty, and data heterogeneity. This study presents a novel Bayesian High-Resolution Transformer approach for 200 meter resolution pan-Arctic SIC mapping and uncertainty quantification using Sentinel-1, RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) data. First, to improve small and subtle sea ice feature (e.g., cracks/leads, ponds, and ice floes) extraction, we design a novel high-resolution Transformer model with both global and local modules that can better discern the subtle differences in sea ice patterns. Second, to address low-resolution and inexact SIC labels, we design a geographically-weighted weakly supervised loss function to supervise the model at region level instead of pixel level, and to prioritize pure open water and ice pack signatures while mitigating the impact of ambiguity in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Third, to improve uncertainty quantification, we design a Bayesian extension of the proposed Transformer model, treating its parameters as random variables to more effectively capture uncertainties. Fourth, to address data heterogeneity, we fuse three different data types (Sentinel-1, RCM, and AMSR2) at decision-level to improve both SIC mapping and uncertainty quantification. The proposed approach is evaluated under pan-Arctic minimum-extent conditions in 2021 and 2025. Results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves 0.70 overall feature detection accuracy using Sentinel-1 data, while also preserving pan-Arctic SIC patterns (Sentinel-1 Rtextsuperscript2 = 0.90 relative to the ARTIST Sea Ice product).