# Same Error, Different Function: The Optimizer as an Implicit Prior in Financial Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.02620 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.02620/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 65 of its 114 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 65)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Neural Tangent Kernel: Convergence and Generalization in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07572/) (2018)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Sharpness-Aware Minimization for Efficiently Improving Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01412/) (2020)
- [On Large-Batch Training for Deep Learning: Generalization Gap and Sharp Minima](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.04836/) (2016)
- [On the Spectral Bias of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.08734/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Examples Are Not Bugs, They Are Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.02175/) (2019)
- [On the Convergence of Adam and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09237/) (2019)
- [Wide Neural Networks of Any Depth Evolve as Linear Models Under Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.06720/) (2019)
- [Prevalence of Neural Collapse during the terminal phase of deep learning training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08186/) (2020)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [On Lazy Training in Differentiable Programming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.07956/) (2018)
- [The Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on Separable Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10345/) (2017)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.03395/) (2020)
- [Sharp Minima Can Generalize For Deep Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04933/) (2017)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Gradient Descent on Neural Networks Typically Occurs at the Edge of Stability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00065/) (2021)
- [All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneously](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01489/) (2018)
- [Interpretable Machine Learning: Fundamental Principles and 10 Grand Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11251/) (2021)
- [The Pitfalls of Simplicity Bias in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07710/) (2020)
- [Implicit Regularization in Matrix Factorization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.09280/) (2017)
- [Gradient Descent Maximizes the Margin of Homogeneous Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05890/) (2019)
- [An Investigation of Why Overparameterization Exacerbates Spurious Correlations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04345/) (2020)
- [Characterizing Implicit Bias in Terms of Optimization Geometry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08246/) (2018)
- [Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on Linear Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.00468/) (2018)
- [The Marginal Value of Adaptive Gradient Methods in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08292/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Neural networks applied to financial time series operate in a regime of underspecification, where model predictors achieve indistinguishable out-of-sample error. Using large-scale volatility forecasting for S&P 500 stocks, we show that different model-training-pipeline pairs with identical test loss learn qualitatively different functions. Across architectures, predictive accuracy remains unchanged, yet optimizer choice reshapes non-linear response profiles and temporal dependence differently. These divergences have material consequences for decisions: volatility-ranked portfolios trace a near-vertical Sharpe-turnover frontier, with nearly 3× turnover dispersion at comparable Sharpe ratios. We conclude that in underspecified settings, optimization acts as a consequential source of inductive bias, thus model evaluation should extend beyond scalar loss to encompass functional and decision-level implications.