# Uncertainty Quantification for Multimodal Large Language Models with Incoherence-adjusted Semantic Volume

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.24195 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.24195/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MLLM training and visual instruction tuning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 42 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [MLLM training and visual instruction tuning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/mllm-training-and-visual-instruction-tuning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Improved Baselines with Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03744/) (2023)
- [BLIP: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training for Unified Vision-Language Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12086/) (2022)
- [Making the V in VQA Matter: Elevating the Role of Image Understanding in Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00837/) (2016)
- [CLIPScore: A Reference-free Evaluation Metric for Image Captioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08718/) (2021)
- [MathVista: Evaluating Mathematical Reasoning of Foundation Models in Visual Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02255/) (2023)
- [Microsoft COCO Captions: Data Collection and Evaluation Server](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.00325/) (2015)
- [Video-MME: The First-Ever Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark of Multi-modal LLMs in Video Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21075/) (2024)
- [OK-VQA: A Visual Question Answering Benchmark Requiring External Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00067/) (2019)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13549/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Eyes Wide Shut? Exploring the Visual Shortcomings of Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06209/) (2024)
- [Aligning Large Multimodal Models with Factually Augmented RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14525/) (2023)
- [Object Hallucination in Image Captioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02156/) (2018)
- [NExT-GPT: Any-to-Any Multimodal LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.05519/) (2023)
- [Phi-4-Mini Technical Report: Compact yet Powerful Multimodal Language Models via Mixture-of-LoRAs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01743/) (2025)
- [Hallucination of Multimodal Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18930/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [AnyGPT: Unified Multimodal LLM with Discrete Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12226/) (2024)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [HalluciDoctor: Mitigating Hallucinatory Toxicity in Visual Instruction Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13614/) (2023)
- [Vision-Language Models for Medical Report Generation and Visual Question Answering: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02469/) (2024)
- [Hallucination Augmented Contrastive Learning for Multimodal Large Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06968/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Overconfidence and Calibration in Medical VQA: Empirical Findings and Hallucination-Aware Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.02543/) (2026)
- [A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19868/) (2026)
- [When Does Visual Token Pruning Improve Calibration? The Role of Evidence Coverage in MLLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.12035/) (2026)
- [Leveraging Visual Signals for Robust Token-Level Uncertainty in Vision-Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27136/) (2026)
- [When Thinking Hurts: Epistemic Signals in the Reasoning Chains of Visual Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08059/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Decision Making in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17084/) (2026)
- [Hierarchical Aggregation of Semantic Uncertainty in 3D Scene Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22351/) (2026)
- [Estimating Uncertainty of Omnimodal Large Language Models via External Omnimodal Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16933/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Despite their capabilities, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) may produce plausible but erroneous outputs, hindering reliable deployment. Accurate uncertainty metrics could enable escalation of unreliable queries to human experts or larger models for improved performance. However, existing uncertainty metrics have practical constraints, such as being designed only for specific modalities, reliant on external tools, or computationally expensive. We introduce UMPIRE, a training-free uncertainty quantification framework for MLLMs that works efficiently across various input and output modalities without external tools, relying only on the models' own internal modality features. UMPIRE computes the incoherence-adjusted semantic volume of sampled MLLM responses for a given task instance, effectively capturing both the global semantic diversity of samples and the local incoherence of responses based on internal model confidence. We propose uncertainty desiderata for MLLMs and provide theoretical analysis motivating UMPIRE's design. Extensive experiments show that UMPIRE consistently outperforms baseline metrics in error detection and uncertainty calibration across image, audio, and video-text benchmarks, including adversarial and out-of-distribution settings. We also demonstrate UMPIRE's generalization to non-text output tasks, including image and audio generation.