# Calibrated Test-Time Guidance for Bayesian Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22428 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22428/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Inverse problems and image restoration, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 54 of its 82 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Inverse problems and image restoration](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/inverse-problems-and-image-restoration/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 54)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [Consistency Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01469/) (2023)
- [Diffusion Posterior Sampling for General Noisy Inverse Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14687/) (2022)
- [Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15571/) (2022)
- [Training Diffusion Models with Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13301/) (2023)
- [Denoising Diffusion Restoration Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11793/) (2022)
- [Equivariant Diffusion for Molecule Generation in 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17003/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Image Restoration Using Denoising Diffusion Null-Space Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.00490/) (2022)
- [Mean Flows for One-step Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13447/) (2025)
- [Improving Diffusion Models for Inverse Problems using Manifold Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00941/) (2022)
- [Universal Guidance for Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07121/) (2023)
- [One Step Diffusion via Shortcut Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12557/) (2024)
- [Denoising Diffusion Models for Plug-and-Play Image Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.08995/) (2023)
- [DiffDock: Diffusion Steps, Twists, and Turns for Molecular Docking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01776/) (2022)
- [Come-Closer-Diffuse-Faster: Accelerating Conditional Diffusion Models for Inverse Problems through Stochastic Contraction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.05146/) (2021)
- [FreeDoM: Training-Free Energy-Guided Conditional Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09833/) (2023)
- [Diffusion Probabilistic Modeling for Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.09481/) (2022)
- [A Variational Perspective on Solving Inverse Problems with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04391/) (2023)
- [Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07226/) (2018)
- [Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07488/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Hierarchical Variational Policies for Reward-Guided Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21661/) (2026)
- [Variational Test-time Optimization for Diffusion Synchronization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15614/) (2026)
- [Accelerated Likelihood Maximization for Diffusion-based Versatile Content Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.31323/) (2026)
- [Training-Free Inpainting Across Domains with a Frozen Text-to-Image Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00862/) (2026)
- [Characterizing and Mitigating Distributional Bias in Physics-Informed Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16582/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian posterior, leading to miscalibrated inference. In this work, we show that common test-time guidance methods do not recover the correct posterior distribution and identify the structural approximations responsible for this failure. We then propose consistent alternative estimators that enable calibrated sampling from the Bayesian posterior. We significantly outperform previous methods on a set of Bayesian inference tasks, and set a new state-of-the-art PSNR in black hole image reconstruction.