# Overconfident Errors Need Stronger Correction: Asymmetric Confidence Penalties for Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21420 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.21420/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 20 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Learning to summarize from human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01325/) (2020)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13837/) (2025)
- [Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards Implicitly Incentivizes Correct Reasoning in Base LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14245/) (2025)
- [The Surprising Effectiveness of Negative Reinforcement in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01347/) (2025)
- [Curriculum Reinforcement Learning from Easy to Hard Tasks Improves LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06632/) (2025)
- [Rethinking Sample Polarity in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.21625/) (2025)
- [CLPO: Curriculum Learning meets Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25004/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [TIP: Token Importance in On-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14084/) (2026)
- [CRISP: Compressed Reasoning via Iterative Self-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.05433/) (2026)
- [PACED: Distillation and On-Policy Self-Distillation at the Frontier of Student Competence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.11178/) (2026)
- [Scaling Large Reasoning Models beyond Human Supervision: A Path toward Superintelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.31075/) (2026)
- [Survive or Collapse: The Asymmetric Roles of Data Gating and Reward Grounding in Self-Play RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.22217/) (2026)
- [Reasoning Compression with Mixed-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08776/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks.