# Estimation of Confidence Bounds in Binary Classification using Wilson Score Kernel Density Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20947 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.20947/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [DINOv3](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10104/) (2025)
- [MedMNIST v2 -- A large-scale lightweight benchmark for 2D and 3D biomedical image classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14795/) (2021)
- [Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks -- a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06823/) (2020)
- [Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01032/) (2024)
- [Precision and Recall Reject Curves for Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08381/) (2023)
- [Global Optimization of Stochastic Black-Box Functions with Arbitrary Noise Distributions using Wilson Score Kernel Density Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09238/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The performance and ease of use of deep learning-based binary classifiers have improved significantly in recent years. This has opened up the potential for automating critical inspection tasks, which have traditionally only been trusted to be done manually. However, the application of binary classifiers in critical operations depends on the estimation of reliable confidence bounds such that system performance can be ensured up to a given statistical significance. We present Wilson Score Kernel Density Classification, which is a novel kernel-based method for estimating confidence bounds in binary classification. The core of our method is the Wilson Score Kernel Density Estimator, which is a function estimator for estimating confidence bounds in Binomial experiments with conditionally varying success probabilities. Our method is evaluated in the context of selective classification on four different datasets, illustrating its use as a classification head of any feature extractor, including vision foundation models. Our proposed method shows similar performance to Gaussian Process Classification, but at a lower computational complexity.