# Detecting High-Potential SMEs with Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.19591 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.19591/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Fast Graph Representation Learning with PyTorch Geometric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02428/) (2019)
- [Modeling Relational Data with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06103/) (2017)
- [Graph Neural Networks: A Review of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.08434/) (2018)
- [Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.07293/) (2019)
- [Heterogeneous Graph Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01332/) (2020)
- [Learning under Concept Drift: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05785/) (2020)
- [Enhancing Financial Report Question-Answering: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation System with Reranking Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16877/) (2026)
- [Graph Neural Network-Driven Hierarchical Mining for Complex Imbalanced Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03803/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [When Corrective Hints Hurt: Prompt Design in Reasoner-Guided Repair of LLM Overcaution on Entailed Negations under OWL~2~DL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23398/) (2026)
- [Better Retrieval, Limited Clustering Gains: A Controlled Study of Multilingual Company Entity Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05573/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) constitute 99.9% of U.S. businesses and generate 44% of economic activity, yet systematically identifying high-potential SMEs remains an open challenge. We introduce SME-HGT, a Heterogeneous Graph Transformer framework that predicts which SBIR Phase I awardees will advance to Phase II funding using exclusively public data. We construct a heterogeneous graph with 32,268 company nodes, 124 research topic nodes, and 13 government agency nodes connected by approximately 99,000 edges across three semantic relation types. SME-HGT achieves an AUPRC of 0.621 0.003 on a temporally-split test set, outperforming an MLP baseline (0.590 0.002) and R-GCN (0.608 0.013) across five random seeds. At a screening depth of 100 companies, SME-HGT attains 89.6% precision with a 2.14 lift over random selection. Our temporal evaluation protocol prevents information leakage, and our reliance on public data ensures reproducibility. These results demonstrate that relational structure among firms, research topics, and funding agencies provides meaningful signal for SME potential assessment, with implications for policymakers and early-stage investors.