# MoE-Spec: Expert Budgeting for Efficient Speculative Decoding

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16052 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.16052/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Efficient MoE training and inference systems, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 14 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [Efficient MoE training and inference systems](https://mlsanity.com/moe/efficient-moe-training-and-inference-systems/)
- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Diffusion LLM and MoE inference](https://mlsanity.com/inference/diffusion-llm-and-moe-inference/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Medusa: Simple LLM Inference Acceleration Framework with Multiple Decoding Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10774/) (2024)
- [EAGLE: Speculative Sampling Requires Rethinking Feature Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15077/) (2024)
- [MoE-Pruner: Pruning Mixture-of-Experts Large Language Model using the Hints from Its Router](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12013/) (2024)
- [MoE-Infinity: Efficient MoE Inference on Personal Machines with Sparsity-Aware Expert Cache](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.14361/) (2024)
- [QMoE: Practical Sub-1-Bit Compression of Trillion-Parameter Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16795/) (2023)
- [Mixture of Quantized Experts (MoQE): Complementary Effect of Low-bit Quantization and Robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02410/) (2023)
- [Utility-Driven Speculative Decoding for Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20675/) (2025)
- [SP-MoE: Speculative Decoding and Prefetching for Accelerating MoE-based Model Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10302/) (2025)
- [Accelerating Mixture-of-Experts Inference by Hiding Offloading Latency with Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21706/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Making Every Verified Token Count: Adaptive Verification for MoE Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00342/) (2026)
- [Less Experts, Faster Decoding: Cost-Aware Speculative Decoding for Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12696/) (2026)
- [MoE-Sieve: Routing-Guided LoRA for Efficient MoE Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24044/) (2026)
- [The Limits of Speculation: Bounding Speculative Decoding in Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22156/) (2026)
- [ELMoE-3D: Leveraging Intrinsic Elasticity of MoE for Hybrid-Bonding-Enabled Self-Speculative Decoding in On-Premises Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14626/) (2026)
- [EdgeXpert: An Edge Device for Memory-Efficient LLM Inference with Mixture-of-Experts and Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05303/) (2026)
- [HDA-MoE: Hybrid Parallelism and Dynamic, Adaptive Scheduling for Mixture-of-Experts with 3D Near-Memory Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08682/) (2026)
- [BigMoMo: Efficient Inference of Large-Scale MoE with Speculative Decoding on Mobile Devices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.14643/) (2026)
- [Efficient Mixture-of-Experts with Speculative Decoding via Expert Coactivation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22471/) (2026)
- [AdaSpark: Adaptive DSpark with Online Learning for Tree Verification and N-gram Fill](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05774/) (2026)
- [Cascadia: Resident 975B MoE Inference on Eleven AI PCs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.07219/) (2026)
- [SpecFit: Not All Draft Tokens Cost the Same in Offloaded MoE Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15417/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by verifying multiple drafted tokens in parallel. However, for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, this parallelism introduces a severe bottleneck: large draft trees activate many unique experts, significantly increasing memory pressure and diminishing speedups from speculative decoding relative to autoregressive decoding. Prior methods reduce speculation depth when MoE verification becomes expensive. We propose MoE-Spec, a training-free verification-time expert budgeting method that decouples speculation depth from memory cost by enforcing a fixed expert capacity limit at each layer, loading only the experts that contribute most to verification and dropping the long tail of rarely used experts that drive bandwidth overhead. Experiments across multiple model scales and datasets show that this method yields 10--30% higher throughput than state-of-the-art speculative decoding baselines (EAGLE-3) at comparable quality, with flexibility to trade accuracy for further latency reductions through tighter budgets.