# Beyond Static Snapshots: Dynamic Modeling and Forecasting of Group-Level Value Evolution with Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14043 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14043/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

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- [Assessing Cross-Cultural Alignment between ChatGPT and Human Societies: An Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17466/) (2023)
- [Investigating Cultural Alignment of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13231/) (2024)
- [Specializing Large Language Models to Simulate Survey Response Distributions for Global Populations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07068/) (2025)
- [Value FULCRA: Mapping Large Language Models to the Multidimensional Spectrum of Basic Human Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.10766/) (2023)
- [Random Silicon Sampling: Simulating Human Sub-Population Opinion Using a Large Language Model Based on Group-Level Demographic Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18144/) (2024)
- [Beyond Demographics: Enhancing Cultural Value Survey Simulation with Multi-Stage Personality-Driven Cognitive Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.17855/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Social simulation is critical for mining complex social dynamics and supporting data-driven decision making. LLM-based methods have emerged as powerful tools for this task by leveraging human-like social questionnaire responses to model group behaviors. Existing LLM-based approaches predominantly focus on group-level values at discrete time points, treating them as static snapshots rather than dynamic processes. However, group-level values are not fixed but shaped by long-term social changes. Modeling their dynamics is thus crucial for accurate social evolution prediction--a key challenge in both data mining and social science. This problem remains underexplored due to limited longitudinal data, group heterogeneity, and intricate historical event impacts. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel framework for group-level dynamic social simulation by integrating historical value trajectories into LLM-based human response modeling. We select China and the U.S. as representative contexts, conducting stratified simulations across four core sociodemographic dimensions (gender, age, education, income). Using the World Values Survey, we construct a multi-wave, group-level longitudinal dataset to capture historical value evolution, and then propose the first event-based prediction method for this task, unifying social events, current value states, and group attributes into a single framework. Evaluations across five LLM families show substantial gains: a maximum 30.88% improvement on seen questions and 33.97% on unseen questions over the Vanilla baseline. We further find notable cross-group heterogeneity: U.S. groups are more volatile than Chinese groups, and younger groups in both countries are more sensitive to external changes. These findings advance LLM-based social simulation and provide new insights for social scientists to understand and predict social value changes.