# Statistical Early Stopping for Reasoning Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.13935 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13935/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 22 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [Skywork Open Reasoner 1 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22312/) (2025)
- [Reasoning Models Know When They're Right: Probing Hidden States for Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05419/) (2025)
- [AbstentionBench: Reasoning LLMs Fail on Unanswerable Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09038/) (2025)
- [MiMo: Unlocking the Reasoning Potential of Language Model -- From Pretraining to Posttraining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.07608/) (2025)
- [Between Underthinking and Overthinking: An Empirical Study of Reasoning Length and correctness in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00127/) (2025)
- [AceReason-Nemotron 1.1: Advancing Math and Code Reasoning through SFT and RL Synergy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13284/) (2025)
- [Missing Premise exacerbates Overthinking: Are Reasoning Models losing Critical Thinking Skill?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.06514/) (2025)
- [Benchmarking Hallucination in Large Language Models based on Unanswerable Math Word Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03558/) (2024)
- [Reasoning about Uncertainty: Do Reasoning Models Know When They Don't Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18183/) (2025)
- [Think or Not? Exploring Thinking Efficiency in Large Reasoning Models via an Information-Theoretic Lens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18237/) (2025)
- [Thought calibration: Efficient and confident test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18404/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models Struggle with Unreasonability in Math Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19346/) (2024)
- [Revisiting Overthinking in Long Chain-of-Thought from the Perspective of Self-Doubt](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23480/) (2025)
- [Beyond Passive Critical Thinking: Fostering Proactive Questioning to Enhance Human-AI Collaboration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.23407/) (2025)
- [Answering the Unanswerable Is to Err Knowingly: Analyzing and Mitigating Abstention Failures in Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18760/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Online Reasoning Calibration: Test-Time Training Enables Generalizable Conformal LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01170/) (2026)
- [When Should an AI Workflow Release? Always-Valid Inference for Black-Box Generate-Verify Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12947/) (2026)
- [When Is Enough Enough in Self-Evolving LLM Systems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.04756/) (2026)
- [Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13284/) (2026)
- [Conformalized Rate-Adaptive Sensing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26887/) (2026)
- [Commit Locally, Exit Globally: Coordinating Adaptive Sampling and Early Exit in Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.28166/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation to mitigate this issue. Our first approach is parametric: it models inter-arrival times of uncertainty keywords as a renewal process and applies sequential testing for stopping. Our second approach is nonparametric and provides finite-sample guarantees on the probability of halting too early on well-posed queries. We conduct empirical evaluations on reasoning tasks across several domains and models. Our results indicate that uncertainty-aware early stopping can improve both efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, and we observe especially significant gains for math reasoning.