# LemonadeBench: Evaluating the Economic Intuition of Large Language Models in Simple Markets

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.13209 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13209/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 7 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [ARC-AGI-2: A New Challenge for Frontier AI Reasoning Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11831/) (2025)
- [SWE-Lancer: Can Frontier LLMs Earn 1 Million from Real-World Freelance Software Engineering?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12115/) (2025)
- [Vending-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Term Coherence of Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15840/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce LemonadeBench v0.5, a minimal benchmark for evaluating economic intuition, long-term planning, and decision-making under uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) through a simulated lemonade stand business. Models must manage inventory with expiring goods, set prices, choose operating hours, and maximize profit over a 30-day period-tasks that any small business owner faces daily. All models demonstrate meaningful economic agency by achieving profitability, with performance scaling dramatically by sophistication-from basic models earning minimal profits to frontier models capturing 70% of theoretical optimal, a greater than 10x improvement. Yet our decomposition of business efficiency across six dimensions reveals a consistent pattern: models achieve local rather than global optimization, excelling in select areas while exhibiting surprising blind spots elsewhere.