# PuYun-LDM: A Latent Diffusion Model for High-Resolution Ensemble Weather Forecasts

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11807 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11807/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 29 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Scaling Rectified Flow Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03206/) (2024)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Wan: Open and Advanced Large-Scale Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20314/) (2025)
- [GLU Variants Improve Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05202/) (2020)
- [Root Mean Square Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07467/) (2019)
- [Representation Alignment for Generation: Training Diffusion Transformers Is Easier Than You Think](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06940/) (2024)
- [Reconstruction vs. Generation: Taming Optimization Dilemma in Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.01423/) (2025)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Deep Compression Autoencoder for Efficient High-Resolution Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10733/) (2024)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02556/) (2022)
- [DDT: Decoupled Diffusion Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05741/) (2025)
- [EQ-VAE: Equivariance Regularized Latent Space for Improved Generative Image Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09509/) (2025)
- [Improving the Diffusability of Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14831/) (2025)
- [A Fourier Space Perspective on Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11278/) (2025)
- [DC-AE 1.5: Accelerating Diffusion Model Convergence with Structured Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.00413/) (2025)
- [Alias-Free Latent Diffusion Models: Improving Fractional Shift Equivariance of Diffusion Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09419/) (2025)
- [Computational Tradeoffs in Image Synthesis: Diffusion, Masked-Token, and Next-Token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13218/) (2024)
- [OmniCast: A Masked Latent Diffusion Model for Weather Forecasting Across Time Scales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.18707/) (2025)
- [Toward Diffusible High-Dimensional Latent Spaces: A Frequency Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22249/) (2025)
- [Decoupling High and Low Frequencies for Faithful Image Generation with Fine Details](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.05441/) (2025)
- [Denoising Vision Transformer Autoencoder with Spectral Self-Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.12633/) (2025)
- [LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09193/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) suffer from limited diffusability in high-resolution (<=0.25deg) ensemble weather forecasting, where diffusability characterizes how easily a latent data distribution can be modeled by a diffusion process. Unlike natural image fields, meteorological fields lack task-agnostic foundation models and explicit semantic structures, making VFM-based regularization inapplicable. Moreover, existing frequency-based approaches impose identical spectral regularization across channels under a homogeneity assumption, which leads to uneven regularization strength under the inter-variable spectral heterogeneity in multivariate meteorological data. To address these challenges, we propose a 3D Masked AutoEncoder (3D-MAE) that encodes weather-state evolution features as an additional conditioning for the diffusion model, together with a Variable-Aware Masked Frequency Modeling (VA-MFM) strategy that adaptively selects thresholds based on the spectral energy distribution of each variable. Together, we propose PuYun-LDM, which enhances latent diffusability and achieves superior performance to ENS at short lead times while remaining comparable to ENS at longer horizons. PuYun-LDM generates a 15-day global forecast with a 6-hour temporal resolution in five minutes on a single NVIDIA H200 GPU, while ensemble forecasts can be efficiently produced in parallel.