# TUBO: A Tailored ML Framework for Reliable Network Traffic Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11759 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11759/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Deep Evidential Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.02600/) (2019)
- [Scalable Variational Gaussian Process Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.2005/) (2014)
- [CrossFormer: A Versatile Vision Transformer Hinging on Cross-scale Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00154/) (2021)
- [Distribution Calibration for Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06023/) (2019)
- [LEAF: Navigating Concept Drift in Cellular Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.03011/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Traffic forecasting based network operation optimization and management offers enormous promise but also presents significant challenges from traffic forecasting perspective. While deep learning models have proven to be relatively more effective than traditional statistical methods for time series forecasting, their reliability is not satisfactory due to their inability to effectively handle unique characteristics of network traffic. In particular, the burst and complex traffic patterns makes the existing models less reliable, as each type of deep learning model has limited capability in capturing traffic patterns. To address this issue, we introduce TUBO, a novel machine learning framework custom designed for reliable network traffic forecasting. TUBO features two key components: burst processing for handling significant traffic fluctuations and model selection for adapting to varying traffic patterns using a pool of models. A standout feature of TUBO is its ability to provide deterministic predictions along with quantified uncertainty, which serves as a cue for identifying the most reliable forecasts. Evaluations on three real-world network demand matrix (DM) datasets (Abilene, GEANT, and CERNET) show that TUBO significantly outperforms existing methods on forecasting accuracy (by 4 times), and also achieves up to 94% accuracy in burst occurrence forecasting. Furthermore, we also consider traffic demand forecasting based proactive traffic engineering (TE) as a downstream use case. Our results show that compared to reactive approaches and proactive TE using the best existing DM forecasting methods, proactive TE powered by TUBO improves aggregated throughput by 9 times and 3 times, respectively.