# Conditional Uncertainty-Aware Political Deepfake Detection with Stochastic Convolutional Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10343 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10343/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Using Pre-Training Can Improve Model Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09960/) (2019)
- [On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11001/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13425/) (2023)
- [Deepfake Detection: A Comprehensive Survey from the Reliability Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.10881/) (2022)
- [From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03282/) (2025)
- [Impact of Video Processing Operations in Deepfake Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17247/) (2023)
- [Detection of AI Generated Images Using Combined Uncertainty Measures and Particle Swarm Optimised Rejection Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18527/) (2025)
- [Is It Certainly a Deepfake? Reliability Analysis in Detection & Generation Ecosystem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.17550/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in generative image models have enabled the creation of highly realistic political deepfakes, posing risks to information integrity, public trust, and democratic processes. While automated deepfake detectors are increasingly deployed in moderation and investigative pipelines, most existing systems provide only point predictions and fail to indicate when outputs are unreliable, being an operationally critical limitation in high-stakes political contexts. This work investigates conditional, uncertainty-aware political deepfake detection using stochastic convolutional neural networks within an empirical, decision-oriented reliability framework. Rather than treating uncertainty as a purely Bayesian construct, it is evaluated through observable criteria, including calibration quality, proper scoring rules, and its alignment with prediction errors under both global and confidence-conditioned analyses. A politically focused binary image dataset is constructed via deterministic metadata filtering from a large public real-synthetic corpus. Two pretrained CNN backbones (ResNet-18 and EfficientNet-B4) are fully fine-tuned for classification. Deterministic inference is compared with single-pass stochastic prediction, Monte Carlo dropout with multiple forward passes, temperature scaling, and ensemble-based uncertainty surrogates. Evaluation reports ROC-AUC, thresholded confusion matrices, calibration metrics, and generator-disjoint out-of-distribution performance. Results demonstrate that calibrated probabilistic outputs and uncertainty estimates enable risk-aware moderation policies. A systematic confidence-band analysis further clarifies when uncertainty provides operational value beyond predicted confidence, delineating both the benefits and limitations of uncertainty-aware deepfake detection in political settings.