# Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law with Neural Ansatz

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10300 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10300/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 72 of its 84 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 72)

- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [DeepSeekMoE: Towards Ultimate Expert Specialization in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06066/) (2024)
- [Fine-Tuning can Distort Pretrained Features and Underperform Out-of-Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10054/) (2022)
- [MiniCPM: Unveiling the Potential of Small Language Models with Scalable Training Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06395/) (2024)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [Gated Delta Networks: Improving Mamba2 with Delta Rule](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06464/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14701/) (2020)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Symbolic Discovery of Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06675/) (2023)
- [Muon is Scalable for LLM Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16982/) (2025)
- [TabTransformer: Tabular Data Modeling Using Contextual Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.06678/) (2020)
- [DataComp-LM: In search of the next generation of training sets for language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11794/) (2024)
- [SmolLM2: When Smol Goes Big -- Data-Centric Training of a Small Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02737/) (2025)
- [An Empirical Model of Large-Batch Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.06162/) (2018)
- [Three Factors Influencing Minima in SGD](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.04623/) (2017)
- [Scaling Laws for Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01293/) (2021)
- [Kimi Linear: An Expressive, Efficient Attention Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26692/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Fine-Grained Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.07871/) (2024)
- [Observational Scaling Laws and the Predictability of Language Model Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10938/) (2024)
- [Language models scale reliably with over-training and on downstream tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08540/) (2024)
- [Broken Neural Scaling Laws](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.14891/) (2022)
- [On the SDEs and Scaling Rules for Adaptive Gradient Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10287/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [On the Nonlinearity of Learning Rate Scaling for LLM Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29158/) (2026)
- [Small-Scale Experiments: Are We There Yet?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.11859/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a textitConfiguration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the textitfull training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a textitNeural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.