# Latent-Space Causal Discovery from Indirect Neuroimaging Observations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09034 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09034/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Physiological signal modeling, one of 10 directions in State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba).
- Builds on 18 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jan 2026.

## Placed in

- State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba) / [Physiological signal modeling](https://mlsanity.com/ssm/physiological-signal-modeling/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Transformers are SSMs: Generalized Models and Efficient Algorithms Through Structured State Space Duality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21060/) (2024)
- [Simplified State Space Layers for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.04933/) (2022)
- [DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01422/) (2018)
- [HiPPO: Recurrent Memory with Optimal Polynomial Projections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.07669/) (2020)
- [On the Parameterization and Initialization of Diagonal State Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.11893/) (2022)
- [DAG-GNN: DAG Structure Learning with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10098/) (2019)
- [It's Raw! Audio Generation with State-Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.09729/) (2022)
- [Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data with Independent Changes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.01672/) (2019)
- [Invariant Causal Prediction for Sequential Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08058/) (2017)
- [Causal Discovery and Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments with State-Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10857/) (2019)
- [Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00267/) (2020)
- [Deep Recurrent Modelling of Granger Causality with Latent Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11286/) (2022)
- [Causal Discovery in Semi-Stationary Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07291/) (2024)
- [CausalMamba: Scalable Conditional State Space Models for Neural Causal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17318/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Neuroimaging does not observe causal variables directly: hemodynamics and volume conduction distort signals so that statistical dependence need not reflect latent neural influence. Before estimating graphs, one must specify under what assumptions delayed directed structure can be studied from such indirect observations. We formalize a conditional setting - recoverable inversion under modality physics together with nonstationary latent dynamics - and derive an inversion-error propagation bound under explicit assumptions. Building on this framing, we propose INCAMA (INdirect CAusal MAmba): physics-aware inversion coupled with a delay-aware Mamba encoder that uses mechanism shifts as informative variation for directed graph scoring. We use controlled simulations for quantitative validation and HCP motor-task fMRI as a zero-shot external transfer check based on anatomical and task-network consistency. Across TVB simulations, INCAMA improves directed-structure recovery by 2-3x in F1 over observation-space and two-stage baselines, and on HCP motor-task fMRI it produces sparse directed estimates concentrated in canonical visuo-motor pathways.