# CoRefine: Confidence-Guided Self-Refinement for Adaptive Test-Time Compute

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.08948 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08948/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 26 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)
- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Early exit and edge inference](https://mlsanity.com/inference/early-exit-and-edge-inference/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Efficiently Scaling Transformer Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05102/) (2022)
- [Adaptive Computation Time for Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.08983/) (2016)
- [Inference Scaling Laws: An Empirical Analysis of Compute-Optimal Inference for Problem-Solving with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00724/) (2024)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18581/) (2025)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [From Decoding to Meta-Generation: Inference-time Algorithms for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16838/) (2024)
- [Let's Sample Step by Step: Adaptive-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning and Coding with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11860/) (2023)
- [Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06233/) (2025)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [BixBench: a Comprehensive Benchmark for LLM-based Agents in Computational Biology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00096/) (2025)
- [Rewarding Chatbots for Real-World Engagement with Millions of Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06135/) (2023)
- [ConCISE: Confidence-guided Compression in Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.04881/) (2025)
- [The ART of LLM Refinement: Ask, Refine, and Trust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07961/) (2023)
- [Path-Consistency with Prefix Enhancement for Efficient Inference in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.01281/) (2024)
- [PaCoRe: Learning to Scale Test-Time Compute with Parallel Coordinated Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05593/) (2026)
- [ReProbe: Efficient Test-Time Scaling of Multi-Step Reasoning by Probing Internal States of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06209/) (2025)
- [Noise-Agnostic Quantum Error Mitigation with Data Augmented Neural Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01727/) (2023)
- [Confidence-guided Refinement Reasoning for Zero-shot Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20750/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Same Signal, Opposite Meaning: Direction-Informed Adaptive Learning for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06908/) (2026)
- [ATLAS: Agentic Test-time Learning-to-Allocate Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.01667/) (2026)
- [Shattering the Autoregressive Curse: Dynamic Epistemic Entropy Orchestrated Erasable Reinforcement Learning for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.17735/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) often rely on test-time scaling via parallel decoding (for example, 512 samples) to boost reasoning accuracy, but this incurs substantial compute. We introduce CoRefine, a confidence-guided self-refinement method that achieves competitive accuracy using a fraction of the tokens via a lightweight 211k-parameter Conv1D controller atop a frozen LLM. The controller consumes full-trace confidence to decide whether to halt, re-examine, or try a different approach, enabling targeted self-correction with an average of 2.7 refinement steps per problem and roughly 190-fold token reduction relative to 512-sample baselines. Across diverse reasoning benchmarks and three open-source models, the controller achieves 92.6 percent precision when it confidently halts, indicating that confidence dynamics reliably signal correctness without ground-truth verification. We extend this to CoRefine-Tree, a hybrid sequential-parallel variant that adaptively balances exploration and exploitation, with easy serving integration and verifier compatibility. By treating confidence as a control signal rather than a correctness guarantee, CoRefine provides a modular primitive for scalable reasoning and agentic settings with imperfect verifiers.