# Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.08889 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08889/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [Encouraging Divergent Thinking in Large Language Models through Multi-Agent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19118/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Cybench: A Framework for Evaluating Cybersecurity Capabilities and Risks of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08926/) (2024)
- [Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18563/) (2024)
- [Cooperation, Competition, and Maliciousness: LLM-Stakeholders Interactive Negotiation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17234/) (2023)
- [CyberGym: Evaluating AI Agents' Real-World Cybersecurity Capabilities at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02548/) (2025)
- [Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19379/) (2024)
- [Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.15474/) (2022)
- [BountyBench: Dollar Impact of AI Agent Attackers and Defenders on Real-World Cybersecurity Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15216/) (2025)
- [A Frontier AI Risk Management Framework: Bridging the Gap Between Current AI Practices and Established Risk Management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06656/) (2025)
- [Mapping AI Benchmark Data to Quantitative Risk Estimates Through Expert Elicitation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04299/) (2025)
- [Toward Quantitative Modeling of Cybersecurity Risks Due to AI Misuse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08864/) (2025)
- [The Role of Risk Modeling in Advanced AI Risk Management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08723/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Quantitative risk assessment relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The Delphi method produces calibrated, auditable estimates but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Beyond lowering cost, this makes the assessment analyzable and dynamic. Rationales and revision histories record what each estimate rests on, information can be ablated to test which evidence matters, and the elicitation can be rerun with new evidence, changed assumptions, or adverse scenarios. Because target quantities are unobservable by construction, we design an evaluation framework based on necessary conditions any reliable estimator must satisfy: accuracy and calibration on verifiable proxies, and sensitivity to evidence. Agreement with expert panels and reasoning quality serve as corroboration. Across two domains (AI-augmented cybersecurity risk, ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise), three benchmarks, and three reproduced expert studies, the estimates pass these tests: they improve systematically as evidence is added, agree with expert panels on most quantities, and correlate strongly with ground truth (Pearson r=0.91-0.98).