# ForecastOcc: Vision-based Semantic Occupancy Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.08006 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08006/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in World models for autonomous driving, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 31 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- World models / [World models for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/wm/world-models-for-autonomous-driving/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [BEVDet4D: Exploit Temporal Cues in Multi-camera 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17054/) (2022)
- [Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14365/) (2023)
- [OccFormer: Dual-path Transformer for Vision-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05316/) (2023)
- [FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/) (2021)
- [OccWorld: Learning a 3D Occupancy World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16038/) (2023)
- [BEVerse: Unified Perception and Prediction in Birds-Eye-View for Vision-Centric Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09743/) (2022)
- [COTR: Compact Occupancy TRansformer for Vision-based 3D Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.01919/) (2023)
- [Differentiable Raycasting for Self-supervised Occupancy Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01917/) (2022)
- [Point Cloud Forecasting as a Proxy for 4D Occupancy Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13130/) (2023)
- [DOME: Taming Diffusion Model into High-Fidelity Controllable Occupancy World Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10429/) (2024)
- [Cam4DOcc: Benchmark for Camera-Only 4D Occupancy Forecasting in Autonomous Driving Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17663/) (2023)
- [StretchBEV: Stretching Future Instance Prediction Spatially and Temporally](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13641/) (2022)
- [UniOcc: A Unified Benchmark for Occupancy Forecasting and Prediction in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24381/) (2025)
- [PowerBEV: A Powerful Yet Lightweight Framework for Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10761/) (2023)
- [STCOcc: Sparse Spatial-Temporal Cascade Renovation for 3D Occupancy and Scene Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.19749/) (2025)
- [Dynamics-Aware Spatiotemporal Occupancy Prediction in Urban Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13172/) (2022)
- [AmodalSynthDrive: A Synthetic Amodal Perception Dataset for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06547/) (2023)
- [Panoptic Out-of-Distribution Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11797/) (2023)
- [Neural Architecture Search for Dense Prediction Tasks in Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07242/) (2022)
- [OccProphet: Pushing Efficiency Frontier of Camera-Only 4D Occupancy Forecasting with Observer-Forecaster-Refiner Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15180/) (2025)
- [Syn-Mediverse: A Multimodal Synthetic Dataset for Intelligent Scene Understanding of Healthcare Facilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03193/) (2023)
- [Progressive Multi-Modal Fusion for Robust 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07475/) (2024)
- [Label-Efficient LiDAR Semantic Segmentation with 2D-3D Vision Transformer Adapters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03299/) (2025)
- [Amodal Optical Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07761/) (2023)
- [Open-Set LiDAR Panoptic Segmentation Guided by Uncertainty-Aware Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13265/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Robot-Assisted Surgery with Hierarchical Class-Incremental Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01713/) (2025)
- [Panoptic-Depth Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12008/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [UP-Fuse: Uncertainty-guided LiDAR-Camera Fusion for 3D Panoptic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.19349/) (2026)
- [Latent Gaussian Splatting for 4D Panoptic Occupancy Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.23172/) (2026)
- [Hyp2Former: Hierarchy-Aware Hyperbolic Embeddings for Open-Set Panoptic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02580/) (2026)
- [Streaming Gaussian Encoding for 4D Panoptic Occupancy Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30754/) (2026)
- [Leveraging Vision-Based Point Cloud Map Priors for Camera-Based 3D Object Detection and Online Vectorized HD Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.26325/) (2026)
- [RoadOcc Learns When to Persist, Transport, or Refresh Memory for Roadside Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.27677/) (2026)
- [Perception Beyond the Visible: Incompleteness-Aware Scene Understanding for Robot Autonomy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.18670/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous driving requires forecasting both geometry and semantics over time to effectively reason about future environment states. Existing vision-based occupancy forecasting methods focus on motion-related categories such as static and dynamic objects, while semantic information remains largely absent. Recent semantic occupancy forecasting approaches address this gap but rely on past occupancy predictions obtained from separate networks. This makes current methods sensitive to error accumulation and prevents learning spatio-temporal features directly from images. In this work, we present ForecastOcc, the first framework for vision-based semantic occupancy forecasting that jointly predicts future occupancy states and semantic categories. Our framework yields semantic occupancy forecasts for multiple horizons directly from past camera images, without relying on externally estimated maps. We evaluate ForecastOcc in two complementary settings: multi-view forecasting on the Occ3D-nuScenes dataset and monocular forecasting on SemanticKITTI, where we establish the first benchmark for this task. We introduce the first baselines by adapting two 2D forecasting modules within our framework. Importantly, we propose a novel architecture that incorporates a temporal cross-attention forecasting module, a 2D-to-3D view transformer, a 3D encoder for occupancy prediction, and a semantic occupancy head for voxel-level forecasts across multiple horizons. Extensive experiments on both datasets show that ForecastOcc consistently outperforms baselines, yielding semantically rich, future-aware predictions that capture scene dynamics and semantics critical for autonomous driving.