# Convex Dominance in Deep Learning I: A Scaling Law of Loss and Learning Rate

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07145 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.07145/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 44 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Neural Tangent Kernel: Convergence and Generalization in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07572/) (2018)
- [Scaling Language Models: Methods, Analysis & Insights from Training Gopher](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11446/) (2021)
- [Visualizing the Loss Landscape of Neural Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09913/) (2017)
- [A Convergence Theory for Deep Learning via Over-Parameterization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.03962/) (2018)
- [Wide Neural Networks of Any Depth Evolve as Linear Models Under Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.06720/) (2019)
- [Gradient Descent Provably Optimizes Over-parameterized Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.02054/) (2018)
- [DeepSeek LLM: Scaling Open-Source Language Models with Longtermism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02954/) (2024)
- [Loss Surfaces, Mode Connectivity, and Fast Ensembling of DNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10026/) (2018)
- [Gradient Descent Finds Global Minima of Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.03804/) (2018)
- [A Mean Field View of the Landscape of Two-Layers Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06561/) (2018)
- [On the Global Convergence of Gradient Descent for Over-parameterized Models using Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09545/) (2018)
- [Learning and Generalization in Overparameterized Neural Networks, Going Beyond Two Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04918/) (2018)
- [PyHessian: Neural Networks Through the Lens of the Hessian](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.07145/) (2019)
- [Identifying and attacking the saddle point problem in high-dimensional non-convex optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.2572/) (2014)
- [Tensor Programs V: Tuning Large Neural Networks via Zero-Shot Hyperparameter Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03466/) (2022)
- [How to Escape Saddle Points Efficiently](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00887/) (2017)
- [The Loss Surfaces of Multilayer Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.0233/) (2014)
- [Learning Overparameterized Neural Networks via Stochastic Gradient Descent on Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.01204/) (2018)
- [Scaling Laws and Compute-Optimal Training Beyond Fixed Training Durations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18392/) (2024)
- [Eigenvalues of the Hessian in Deep Learning: Singularity and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.07476/) (2016)
- [Prodigy: An Expeditiously Adaptive Parameter-Free Learner](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06101/) (2023)
- [Why Transformers Need Adam: A Hessian Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16788/) (2024)
- [Learning-Rate-Free Learning by D-Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07733/) (2023)
- [Resolving Discrepancies in Compute-Optimal Scaling of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.19146/) (2024)
- [DoG is SGD's Best Friend: A Parameter-Free Dynamic Step Size Schedule](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12022/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Deriving Hyperparameter Scaling Laws via Modern Optimization Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15958/) (2026)
- [Expert Upcycling: Shifting the Compute-Efficient Frontier of Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19835/) (2026)
- [Towards joint scaling laws with optimal batch size schedules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.27731/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning has non-convex loss landscape and its optimization dynamics is hard to analyze or control. Nevertheless, the dynamics can be empirically convex-like across various tasks, models, optimizers, hyperparameters, etc. In this work, we examine the applicability of convexity and Lipschitz continuity in deep learning, in order to precisely control the loss dynamics via the learning rate schedules. We illustrate that deep learning quickly becomes weakly convex after a short period of training, and the loss is predicable by an upper bound on the last iterate, which further informs the scaling of optimal learning rate. Through the lens of convexity, we build scaling laws of learning rates and losses that extrapolate as much as 80X across training horizons and 70X across model sizes.