# HyPER: Bridging Exploration and Exploitation for Scalable LLM Reasoning with Hypothesis Path Expansion and Reduction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.06527 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06527/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 53 of its 68 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)
- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE large language models](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-large-language-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 53)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Humanity's Last Exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14249/) (2025)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [OLMoE: Open Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02060/) (2024)
- [Inference Scaling Laws: An Empirical Analysis of Compute-Optimal Inference for Problem-Solving with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00724/) (2024)
- [Monte Carlo Tree Search Boosts Reasoning via Iterative Preference Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00451/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Universal Self-Consistency for Large Language Model Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17311/) (2023)
- [Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18581/) (2025)
- [From Decoding to Meta-Generation: Inference-time Algorithms for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16838/) (2024)
- [Can 1B LLM Surpass 405B LLM? Rethinking Compute-Optimal Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06703/) (2025)
- [Forest-of-Thought: Scaling Test-Time Compute for Enhancing LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.09078/) (2024)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [Skeleton-of-Thought: Prompting LLMs for Efficient Parallel Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15337/) (2023)
- [Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding for Efficient LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19324/) (2025)
- [OpenR: An Open Source Framework for Advanced Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09671/) (2024)
- [Don't Overthink it. Preferring Shorter Thinking Chains for Improved LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17813/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Scaling test-time compute with multi-path chain-of-thought improves reasoning accuracy, but its effectiveness depends critically on the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Existing approaches address this trade-off in rigid ways: tree-structured search hard-codes exploration through brittle expansion rules that interfere with post-trained reasoning, while parallel reasoning over-explores redundant hypothesis paths and relies on weak answer selection. Motivated by the observation that the optimal balance is phase-dependent and that correct and incorrect reasoning paths often diverge only at late stages, we reformulate test-time scaling as a dynamic expand-reduce control problem over a pool of hypotheses. We propose HyPER, a training-free online control policy for multi-path decoding in mixture-of-experts models that reallocates computation under a fixed budget using lightweight path statistics. HyPER consists of an online controller that transitions from exploration to exploitation as the hypothesis pool evolves, a token-level refinement mechanism that enables efficient generation-time exploitation without full-path resampling, and a length- and confidence-aware aggregation strategy for reliable answer-time exploitation. Experiments on four mixture-of-experts language models across diverse reasoning benchmarks show that HyPER consistently achieves a superior accuracy-compute trade-off, improving accuracy by 8 to 10 percent while reducing token usage by 25 to 40 percent.