# Intrinsic Stability Limits of Autoregressive Reasoning: Structural Consequences for Long-Horizon Execution

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.06413 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06413/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 9 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09687/) (2023)
- [TextWorld: A Learning Environment for Text-based Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.11532/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet their performance often deteriorates sharply in long-horizon tasks, exhibiting systematic breakdown beyond certain scales. Conventional explanations primarily attribute this phenomenon to task complexity, such as combinatorial search explosion or long-term credit assignment challenges. In this work, we argue that these explanations are incomplete: even in linear, unbranched tasks without semantic ambiguity, autoregressive execution is subject to an intrinsic stability limit. We propose that the fundamental constraint on long-horizon reasoning arises from process-level instability in autoregressive generation rather than solely from search or task complexity, reframing long-horizon reasoning as a problem of structural governance. We derive Theorem~A, showing that decision advantage in single-path autoregressive reasoning decays exponentially with execution length, imposing a fundamental bound on maintainable reasoning chains. This result implies a structural consequence: stable long-horizon reasoning requires discrete segmentation, naturally inducing graph-like execution structures such as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). Empirical studies in both synthetic environments and real TextWorld tasks reveal observable performance cliffs consistent with theoretical predictions. Our findings provide a dynamical perspective on long-horizon reasoning failure and suggest new limitations on maintaining long-term coherence under purely autoregressive architectures. Furthermore, we highlight that short-horizon evaluation protocols may obscure structural instability, indicating a potential shift from scaling toward structured governance in future reasoning systems.