# Causal Inference on Stopped Random Walks in Online Advertising

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.05997 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05997/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Experimental Design in Two-Sided Platforms: An Analysis of Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05670/) (2020)
- [Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.00148/) (2020)
- [Degree of Interference: A General Framework For Causal Inference Under Interference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17516/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We consider a causal inference problem frequently encountered in online advertising systems, where a publisher (e.g., Instagram, TikTok) interacts repeatedly with human users and advertisers by sporadically displaying to each user an advertisement selected through an auction. Each treatment corresponds to a parameter value of the advertising mechanism (e.g., auction reserve-price), and we want to estimate through experiments the corresponding long-term treatment effect (e.g., annual advertising revenue). In our setting, the treatment affects not only the instantaneous revenue from showing an ad, but also changes each user's interaction-trajectory, and each advertiser's bidding policy -- as the latter is constrained by a finite budget. In particular, each a treatment may even affect the size of the population, since users interact longer with a tolerable advertising mechanism. We drop the classical i.i.d. assumption and model the experiment measurements (e.g., advertising revenue) as a stopped random walk, and use a budget-splitting experimental design, the Anscombe Theorem, a Wald-like equation, and a Central Limit Theorem to construct confidence intervals for the long-term treatment effect.