# NEX: Neuron Explore-Exploit Scoring for Label-Free Chain-of-Thought Selection and Model Ranking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.05805 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05805/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 22 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05482/) (2022)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Editing Models with Task Arithmetic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04089/) (2022)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [TIES-Merging: Resolving Interference When Merging Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01708/) (2023)
- [Merging Models with Fisher-Weighted Averaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09832/) (2021)
- [Beyond the 80/20 Rule: High-Entropy Minority Tokens Drive Effective Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01939/) (2025)
- [Layer by Layer: Uncovering Hidden Representations in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02013/) (2025)
- [Inference Scaling Laws: An Empirical Analysis of Compute-Optimal Inference for Problem-Solving with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00724/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [From Decoding to Meta-Generation: Inference-time Algorithms for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16838/) (2024)
- [Model Utility Law: Evaluating LLMs beyond Performance through Mechanism Interpretable Metric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07440/) (2025)
- [Do LLMs Signal When They're Right? Evidence from Neuron Agreement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26277/) (2025)
- [A Systematic Study of In-the-Wild Model Merging for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.21437/) (2025)
- [Will it Merge? On The Causes of Model Mergeability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06672/) (2026)
- [ARM: Role-Conditioned Neuron Transplantation for Training-Free Generalist LLM Agent Merging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.07309/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [SliceGraph: Mapping Process Isomers in Multi-Run Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14619/) (2026)
- [Does the Same Token Mean the Same State? MoE Routing as Signal for Reasoning Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22798/) (2026)
- [From Concentration to Differentiation and Back: Routing Effective Rank in MoE Reasoning Cohorts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06403/) (2026)
- [Construting Reverse Thinking: Developing Large Language Models' Reverse Thingking Ability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24760/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models increasingly spend inference compute sampling multiple chain-of-thought traces or searching over merged checkpoints. This shifts the bottleneck from generation to selection, often without supervision on the target distribution. We show entropy-based exploration proxies follow an inverted-U with accuracy, suggesting extra exploration can become redundant and induce overthinking. We propose NEX, a white-box label-free unsupervised scoring framework that views reasoning as alternating E-phase (exploration) and X-phase (exploitation). NEX detects E-phase as spikes in newly activated MLP neurons per token from sparse activation caches, then uses a sticky two-state HMM to infer E-X phases and credits E-introduced neurons by whether they are reused in the following X span. These signals yield interpretable neuron weights and a single Good-Mass Fraction score to rank candidate responses and merged variants without task answers. Across reasoning benchmarks and Qwen3 merge families, NEX computed on a small unlabeled activation set predicts downstream accuracy and identifies better variants; we further validate the E-X signal with human annotations and provide causal evidence via "Effective-vs-Redundant" neuron transfer.