# Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting for Volatile Markets Using Foundation Models with Regularization Strategy

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.05430 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05430/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [Building Energy Load Forecasting using Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.09460/) (2016)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Foundation models for electricity price forecasting and battery arbitrage: Can they replace market-specific forecasting models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00089/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for energy markets stakeholders (e.g. grid operators, energy traders, policymakers) but remains challenging due to the inherent volatility and nonlinearity of price signals. Traditional statistical and deep learning (DL) models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies and integrate heterogeneous data effectively. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong performance in general time series forecasting tasks, such as traffic forecasting and weather forecasting. However, their effectiveness in day-ahead EPF, particularly in volatile markets, remains underexplored. This paper presents a spike regularization strategy and evaluates a wide range of TSFMs, including Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs), MOIRAI, MOMENT, and TimesFM, against traditional statistical and DL models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long-short Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network - LSTM (CNN-LSTM) using half-hourly wholesale market data with volatile trends in Singapore. Exogenous factors (e.g. weather and calendar variables) are also incorporated into models where applicable. Results demonstrate that TSFMs consistently outperform traditional approaches, achieving up to 37.4% improvement in MAPE across various evaluation settings. The findings offer practical guidance for improving forecast accuracy and decision-making in volatile electricity markets.