# Semantic Self-Distillation for Language Model Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.04577 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.04577/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Knowledge distillation for LLMs, one of 12 directions in Knowledge distillation.
- Builds on 42 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- Knowledge distillation / [Knowledge distillation for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/distill/knowledge-distillation-for-llms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [Llama Guard: LLM-based Input-Output Safeguard for Human-AI Conversations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06674/) (2023)
- [Simple and Effective Masked Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07524/) (2024)
- [AgentPoison: Red-teaming LLM Agents via Poisoning Memory or Knowledge Bases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12784/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [BEHRT: Transformer for Electronic Health Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09538/) (2019)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14499/) (2025)
- [Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18418/) (2024)
- [Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08718/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08391/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [MOTOR: A Time-To-Event Foundation Model For Structured Medical Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.03150/) (2023)
- [Zero Shot Health Trajectory Prediction Using Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21124/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [Open-LLM-Leaderboard: From Multi-choice to Open-style Questions for LLMs Evaluation, Benchmark, and Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07545/) (2024)
- [SPUQ: Perturbation-Based Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02509/) (2024)
- [Building Production-Ready Probes For Gemini](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11516/) (2026)
- [In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24087/) (2024)
- [Real-Time Detection of Hallucinated Entities in Long-Form Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.03531/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Entropy Alone is Insufficient for Safe Selective Prediction in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.21172/) (2026)
- [BAS: A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Evaluating Large Language Model Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.03216/) (2026)
- [The Alignment Tax: Response Homogenization in Aligned LLMs and Its Implications for Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24124/) (2026)
- [BiG-SURE - Bipartite Graph for Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.30646/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models present challenges for principled uncertainty quantification, in part due to their complexity and the diversity of their outputs. Semantic dispersion, or the variance in the meaning of sampled answers, has been proposed as a useful proxy for model uncertainty, but the associated computational cost prohibits its use in latency-critical applications. We show that sampled semantic distributions can be distilled into lightweight student models which estimate a prompt-conditioned density before the language model generates an answer token. The student model predicts a semantic distribution over possible answers; the entropy of this distribution provides a prompt-level uncertainty signal, and the probability density allows answer-level reliability evaluation. Across experiments on TriviaQA and MMLU, we find our student models perform competitively relative to the teacher's sampled semantic dispersion on a hallucination prediction task, whilst offering additional uncertainty primitives for out-of-domain detection and multiple-choice answer selection. We term this technique Semantic Self-Distillation (SSD), which can serve as a general framework for distilling predictive uncertainty in complex output spaces beyond language.