# ARTIS: Agentic Risk-Aware Test-Time Scaling via Iterative Simulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01709 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01709/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 44 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)
- LLM agents and tool use / [General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/agents/general-llm-agent-frameworks-and-benchmarks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [τ2-Bench: Evaluating Conversational Agents in a Dual-Control Environment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07982/) (2025)
- [API-Bank: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Tool-Augmented LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08244/) (2023)
- [Improve Mathematical Reasoning in Language Models by Automated Process Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06592/) (2024)
- [Agentic Context Engineering: Evolving Contexts for Self-Improving Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04618/) (2025)
- [ToolAlpaca: Generalized Tool Learning for Language Models with 3000 Simulated Cases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05301/) (2023)
- [rStar-Math: Small LLMs Can Master Math Reasoning with Self-Evolved Deep Thinking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04519/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [Large Language Model Agent: A Survey on Methodology, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.21460/) (2025)
- [APIGen-MT: Agentic Pipeline for Multi-Turn Data Generation via Simulated Agent-Human Interplay](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03601/) (2025)
- [Accessing GPT-4 level Mathematical Olympiad Solutions via Monte Carlo Tree Self-refine with LLaMa-3 8B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07394/) (2024)
- [Towards a Science of Scaling Agent Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08296/) (2025)
- [Can 1B LLM Surpass 405B LLM? Rethinking Compute-Optimal Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06703/) (2025)
- [Web Agents with World Models: Learning and Leveraging Environment Dynamics in Web Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13232/) (2024)
- [Forest-of-Thought: Scaling Test-Time Compute for Enhancing LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.09078/) (2024)
- [Towards System 2 Reasoning in LLMs: Learning How to Think With Meta Chain-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04682/) (2025)
- [MCP-Universe: Benchmarking Large Language Models with Real-World Model Context Protocol Servers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14704/) (2025)
- [OpenR: An Open Source Framework for Advanced Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09671/) (2024)
- [The Tool Decathlon: Benchmarking Language Agents for Diverse, Realistic, and Long-Horizon Task Execution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.25726/) (2025)
- [An Empirical Study on Eliciting and Improving R1-like Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04548/) (2025)
- [ACEBench: Who Wins the Match Point in Tool Usage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12851/) (2025)
- [TOUCAN: Synthesizing 1.5M Tool-Agentic Data from Real-World MCP Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01179/) (2025)
- [A Comparative Study on Reasoning Patterns of OpenAI's o1 Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13639/) (2024)
- [Scaling Test-time Compute for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.12928/) (2025)
- [Enhancing LLM Reasoning via Critique Models with Test-Time and Training-Time Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16579/) (2024)
- [Can Language Models Serve as Text-Based World Simulators?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06485/) (2024)
- [LiveMCPBench: Can Agents Navigate an Ocean of MCP Tools?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01780/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [The Evolution of Tool Use in LLM Agents: From Single-Tool Call to Multi-Tool Orchestration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.22862/) (2026)
- [EnvACE: Internalizing Environment Dynamics via World Rehearsal for Agentic Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.06197/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Current test-time scaling (TTS) techniques enhance large language model (LLM) performance by allocating additional computation at inference time, yet they remain insufficient for agentic settings, where actions directly interact with external environments and their effects can be irreversible and costly. We propose ARTIS, Agentic Risk-Aware Test-Time Scaling via Iterative Simulation, a framework that decouples exploration from commitment by enabling test-time exploration through simulated interactions prior to real-world execution. This design allows extending inference-time computation to improve action-level reliability and robustness without incurring environmental risk. We further show that naive LLM-based simulators struggle to capture rare but high-impact failure modes, substantially limiting their effectiveness for agentic decision making. To address this limitation, we introduce a risk-aware tool simulator that emphasizes fidelity on failure-inducing actions via targeted data generation and rebalanced training. Experiments on multi-turn and multi-step agentic benchmarks demonstrate that iterative simulation substantially improves agent reliability, and that risk-aware simulation is essential for consistently realizing these gains across models and tasks.