# A Relative-Budget Theory for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards in Large Language Model Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01523 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01523/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 30 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 30)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13837/) (2025)
- [Phi-4-Mini Technical Report: Compact yet Powerful Multimodal Language Models via Mixture-of-LoRAs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01743/) (2025)
- [Process Reinforcement through Implicit Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01456/) (2025)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [Training Language Models to Reason Efficiently](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04463/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Data Selection for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16827/) (2024)
- [VinePPO: Refining Credit Assignment in RL Training of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01679/) (2024)
- [From Decoding to Meta-Generation: Inference-time Algorithms for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16838/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Frontiers in LLM Reasoning: Inference Scaling, Learning to Reason, and Agentic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09037/) (2025)
- [The Invisible Leash: Why RLVR May or May Not Escape Its Origin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.14843/) (2025)
- [Scaling Test-Time Compute Without Verification or RL is Suboptimal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12118/) (2025)
- [Reasoning or Memorization? Unreliable Results of Reinforcement Learning Due to Data Contamination](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.10532/) (2025)
- [Learn to Reason Efficiently with Adaptive Length-based Reward Shaping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15612/) (2025)
- [On the Interplay of Pre-Training, Mid-Training, and RL on Reasoning Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.07783/) (2025)
- [Improving Data Efficiency for LLM Reinforcement Fine-tuning Through Difficulty-targeted Online Data Selection and Rollout Replay](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05316/) (2025)
- [Physics of Language Models: Part 2.2, How to Learn From Mistakes on Grade-School Math Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.16293/) (2024)
- [Reasoning on a Budget: A Survey of Adaptive and Controllable Test-Time Compute in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02076/) (2025)
- [Metastable Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning: Provable Benefits of Search, RL and Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01694/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [From Chatbot to Digital Colleague: The Paradigm Shift Toward Persistent Autonomous AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.14502/) (2026)
- [Learning to Adapt SFT Data for Better Reasoning Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26924/) (2026)
- [Verification with Transfer: Exact Information Frontiers and Their Price in Calls](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.12211/) (2026)
- [Beyond Policy Rollouts: Embedding-Space Directional Exploration with Anchored Noise for LLM RLVR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16105/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a dominant paradigm for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models, yet its effectiveness varies across tasks and compute budgets. We propose a relative-budget theory explaining this variation through a single quantity called relative budget xi := H/mathbbE[T], where H is the generation horizon (token budget) and T denotes the number of tokens until the first correct solution under a base policy. We show that xi determines sample efficiency by controlling reward variance and the likelihood of informative trajectories. Our analysis reveals three regimes: in the deficient regime (xi → 0), informative trajectories are rare and the sample complexity explodes; in the balanced regime (xi=Theta(1)), informative trajectories occur with non-negligible probability and RL is maximally sample-efficient; and in the ample regime (xi → ∞), learning remains stable but marginal gains per iteration diminish. We further provide finite-sample guarantees for online RL that characterize learning progress across these regimes. Specifically, in a case study under idealized distributional assumptions, we show that the relative budget grows linearly over iterations. Our empirical results confirm these predictions in realistic settings, identifying a budget xi ∈ [1.5, 2.0] that maximizes learning efficiency and coincides with peak reasoning performance.