# Deep Variational Contrastive Learning for Joint Risk Stratification and Time-to-Event Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01367 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01367/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [UMAP: Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03426/) (2018)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [FLamby: Datasets and Benchmarks for Cross-Silo Federated Learning in Realistic Healthcare Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.04620/) (2022)
- [Machine Learning for Survival Analysis: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.04649/) (2017)
- [Deep Learning for Survival Analysis: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14961/) (2023)
- [Deep Survival Machines: Fully Parametric Survival Regression and Representation Learning for Censored Data with Competing Risks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01176/) (2020)
- [Deep Cox Mixtures for Survival Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06536/) (2021)
- [A Deep Variational Approach to Clustering Survival Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05763/) (2021)
- [Survival Cluster Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00355/) (2020)
- [FPBoost: Fully Parametric Gradient Boosting for Survival Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.13363/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Survival analysis is essential for clinical decision-making, as it allows practitioners to estimate time-to-event outcomes, stratify patient risk profiles, and guide treatment planning. Deep learning has revolutionized this field with unprecedented predictive capabilities but faces a fundamental trade-off between performance and interpretability. While neural networks achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature limits clinical adoption. Conversely, deep clustering-based methods that stratify patients into interpretable risk groups typically sacrifice predictive power. We propose CONVERSE (CONtrastive Variational Ensemble for Risk Stratification and Estimation), a deep survival model that bridges this gap by unifying variational autoencoders with contrastive learning for interpretable risk stratification. CONVERSE combines variational embeddings with multiple intra- and inter-cluster contrastive losses. Self-paced learning progressively incorporates samples from easy to hard, improving training stability. The model supports cluster-specific survival heads, enabling accurate ensemble predictions. Comprehensive evaluation on four benchmark datasets demonstrates that CONVERSE achieves competitive or superior performance compared to existing deep survival methods, while maintaining meaningful patient stratification.