# Chronos: Learning Temporal Dynamics of Reasoning Chains for Test-Time Scaling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01208 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01208/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 8 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Feb 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [DeepSeek-V3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19437/) (2024)
- [Monte Carlo Tree Search Boosts Reasoning via Iterative Preference Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00451/) (2024)
- [Semantic Self-Consistency: Enhancing Language Model Reasoning via Semantic Weighting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07839/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has emerged as an effective paradigm for improving the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods -- most notably majority voting and heuristic token-level scoring -- treat reasoning traces or tokens equally, thereby being susceptible to substantial variations in trajectory quality and localized logical failures. In this work, we introduce Chronos, a lightweight and plug-and-play chronological reasoning scorer that models each trajectory as a time series. Specifically, Chronos learns to capture trajectory features of token probabilities, assigns quality scores accordingly, and employs a weighted voting mechanism. Extensive evaluations on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks demonstrate that Chronos consistently delivers substantial gains across a variety of models, with negligible computational overhead. Notably, Chronos@128 achieves relative improvements of 34.21% over Pass@1 and 22.70% over Maj@128 on HMMT25 using Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507, highlighting its effectiveness.