# Strong Linear Baselines Strike Back: Closed-Form Linear Models as Gaussian Process Conditional Density Estimators for TSAD

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.00672 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00672/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04431/) (2018)
- [Anomaly Transformer: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Association Discrepancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.02642/) (2021)
- [Unsupervised Anomaly Detection via Variational Auto-Encoder for Seasonal KPIs in Web Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03903/) (2018)
- [LSTM-based Encoder-Decoder for Multi-sensor Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.00148/) (2016)
- [FITS: Modeling Time Series with 10k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03756/) (2023)
- [Time-Series Anomaly Detection Service at Microsoft](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03821/) (2019)
- [Current Time Series Anomaly Detection Benchmarks are Flawed and are Creating the Illusion of Progress](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13807/) (2020)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05244/) (2022)
- [TFAD: A Decomposition Time Series Anomaly Detection Architecture with Time-Frequency Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09693/) (2022)
- [An Analysis of Linear Time Series Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14587/) (2024)
- [Revisiting VAE for Unsupervised Time Series Anomaly Detection: A Frequency Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02820/) (2024)
- [TimeSeriesBench: An Industrial-Grade Benchmark for Time Series Anomaly Detection Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10802/) (2024)
- [VUS: Effective and Efficient Accuracy Measures for Time-Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13318/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Research in time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has largely focused on developing increasingly sophisticated, hard-to-train, and expensive-to-infer neural architectures. We revisit this paradigm and show that a simple linear autoregressive anomaly score with the closed-form solution provided by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art deep detectors. From a theoretical perspective, we show that linear models capture a broad class of anomaly types, estimating a finite-history Gaussian process conditional density. From a practical side, across extensive univariate and multivariate benchmarks, the proposed approach achieves superior accuracy while requiring orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Thus, future research should consistently include strong linear baselines and, more importantly, develop new benchmarks with richer temporal structures pinpointing the advantages of deep learning models.