# From Observations to States: Latent Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.00297 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00297/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 44 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Representation Learning with Contrastive Predictive Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03748/) (2018)
- [Bootstrap your own latent: A new approach to self-supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07733/) (2020)
- [Exploring Simple Siamese Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.10566/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Deep Variational Information Bottleneck](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00410/) (2016)
- [Representation Alignment for Generation: Training Diffusion Transformers Is Easier Than You Think](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06940/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Atari](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00374/) (2019)
- [TS2Vec: Towards Universal Representation of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.10466/) (2021)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [FreDF: Learning to Forecast in the Frequency Domain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02399/) (2024)
- [TSLANet: Rethinking Transformers for Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08472/) (2024)
- [TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13041/) (2025)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [DBLoss: Decomposition-based Loss Function for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23672/) (2025)
- [R&D-Agent-Quant: A Multi-Agent Framework for Data-Centric Factors and Model Joint Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15155/) (2025)
- [TimeBridge: Non-Stationarity Matters for Long-term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04442/) (2024)
- [Patch-wise Structural Loss for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00877/) (2025)
- [Adaptive Multi-Scale Decomposition Framework for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03751/) (2024)
- [DAG: A Dual Correlation Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14933/) (2025)
- [Simplifying Model-based RL: Learning Representations, Latent-space Models, and Policies with One Objective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.08466/) (2022)
- [WPMixer: Efficient Multi-Resolution Mixing for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.17176/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [LastOPD: Taming Collapse in Latent On-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.28845/) (2026)
- [Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13571/) (2026)
- [Deep Time-Series Forecasting in 10 Years: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19899/) (2026)
- [TimeEvo: Failure-Driven Self-Evolution of a Time Series Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.27277/) (2026)
- [WorldTS: World Modeling for Multimodal Covariate-aware Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31162/) (2026)
- [On the Divergence of Accuracy and Mechanism Consistency in Time Series World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.01842/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are temporally disordered and lack continuity. We attribute this to the dominant observation-space forecasting paradigm, where minimizing point-wise errors on noisy and partially observed data encourages shortcut solutions instead of the recovery of underlying system dynamics. To address this, we propose Latent Time Series Forecasting (LatentTSF), a paradigm that shifts TSF from observation regression to latent state prediction. LatentTSF employs an AutoEncoder to project each observation into a learned latent state space and performs forecasting entirely in this space, allowing the model to focus on learning structured temporal dynamics. We provide an information-theoretic analysis showing that the latent objectives can be motivated as surrogates for maximizing mutual information between predicted and ground-truth latent states and future observations. Extensive experiments on widely-used benchmarks confirm that LatentTSF effectively mitigates latent chaos, yielding consistent improvements in both forecasting accuracy and representation quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/Muyiiiii/LatentTSF.