# FedDis: A Causal Disentanglement Framework for Federated Traffic Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22578 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.22578/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.01852/) (2015)
- [Federated Optimization in Heterogeneous Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.06127/) (2018)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Spatial Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07455/) (2018)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [CLUB: A Contrastive Log-ratio Upper Bound of Mutual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12013/) (2020)
- [Privacy-preserving Traffic Flow Prediction: A Federated Learning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.08725/) (2020)
- [Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12093/) (2019)
- [Cross-Node Federated Graph Neural Network for Spatio-Temporal Data Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05223/) (2021)
- [Spatiotemporal-aware Trend-Seasonality Decomposition Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12213/) (2025)
- [Robust Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting with Reinforced Dynamic Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14126/) (2023)
- [Personalized Federated Learning for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting: A Dual Semantic Alignment-Based Contrastive Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.03702/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.24218/) (2026)
- [FedeRICo: Federated Region-Influenced Coupling for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.20026/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Federated learning offers a promising paradigm for privacy-preserving traffic prediction, yet its performance is often challenged by the non-identically and independently distributed (non-IID) nature of decentralized traffic data. Existing federated methods frequently struggle with this data heterogeneity, typically entangling globally shared patterns with client-specific local dynamics within a single representation. In this work, we postulate that this heterogeneity stems from the entanglement of two distinct generative sources: client-specific localized dynamics and cross-client global spatial-temporal patterns. Motivated by this perspective, we introduce FedDis, a novel framework that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage causal disentanglement for federated spatial-temporal prediction. Architecturally, FedDis comprises a dual-branch design wherein a Personalized Bank learns to capture client-specific factors, while a Global Pattern Bank distills common knowledge. This separation enables robust cross-client knowledge transfer while preserving high adaptability to unique local environments. Crucially, a mutual information minimization objective is employed to enforce informational orthogonality between the two branches, thereby ensuring effective disentanglement. Comprehensive experiments conducted on four real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that FedDis consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, promising efficiency, and superior expandability.