# Seg-MoE: Multi-Resolution Segment-wise Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Forecasting Transformers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.21641 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21641/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 51 of its 72 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jan 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 51)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3555/) (2014)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [GShard: Scaling Giant Models with Conditional Computation and Automatic Sharding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16668/) (2020)
- [Root Mean Square Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07467/) (2019)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Deep Networks with Stochastic Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.09382/) (2016)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04745/) (2020)
- [DeepSeekMoE: Towards Ultimate Expert Specialization in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06066/) (2024)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Mixture-of-Experts with Expert Choice Routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.09368/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [RhyMix: A Lightweight Adaptive Multi-Rhythm Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08234/) (2026)
- [Which Histories Matter for Time Series Forecasting? Learning Predictive Relevance with Future Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.23221/) (2026)
- [When Does Context Routing Help? A Systematic Study of Multi-Modal Fusion in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.25128/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Transformer-based models have recently made significant advances in accurate time-series forecasting, but even these architectures struggle to scale efficiently while capturing long-term temporal dynamics. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers are a proven solution to scaling problems in natural language processing. However, existing MoE approaches for time-series forecasting rely on token-wise routing mechanisms, which may fail to exploit the natural locality and continuity of temporal data. In this work, we introduce Seg-MoE, a sparse MoE design that routes and processes contiguous time-step segments rather than making independent expert decisions. Token segments allow each expert to model intra-segment interactions directly, naturally aligning with inherent temporal patterns. We integrate Seg-MoE layers into a time-series Transformer and evaluate it on multiple multivariate long-term forecasting benchmarks. Seg-MoE consistently achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy across almost all prediction horizons, outperforming both dense Transformers and prior token-wise MoE models. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm that segment-level routing is the key factor driving these gains. Our results show that aligning the MoE routing granularity with the inherent structure of time series provides a powerful, yet previously underexplored, inductive bias, opening new avenues for conditionally sparse architectures in sequential data modeling.