# Real-Time Trend Prediction via Continually-Aligned LLM Query Generation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.17567 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.17567/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 6 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Study of Catastrophic Forgetting in Large Language Models During Continual Fine-tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08747/) (2023)
- [A Unified Approach to Domain Incremental Learning with Memory: Theory and Algorithm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12244/) (2023)
- [Online Preference Alignment for Language Models via Count-based Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12735/) (2025)
- [Full-Step-DPO: Self-Supervised Preference Optimization with Step-wise Rewards for Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14356/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trending news detection in low-traffic search environments faces a fundamental cold-start problem, where a lack of query volume prevents systems from identifying emerging or long-tail trends. Existing methods relying on keyword frequency or query spikes are inherently slow and ineffective in these sparse settings, lagging behind real-world shifts in attention. We introduce RTTP, a novel Real-Time Trending Prediction framework that generates search queries directly from news content instead of waiting for users to issue them. RTTP leverages a continual learning LLM (CL-LLM) that converts posts into search-style queries and scores them using engagement strength + creator authority, enabling early trend surfacing before search volume forms. To ensure adaptation without degrading reasoning, we propose Mix-Policy DPO, a new preference-based continual learning approach that combines on-policy stability with off-policy novelty to mitigate catastrophic forgetting during model upgrades. Deployed at production scale on Facebook and Meta AI products, RTTP delivers +91.4% improvement in tail-trend detection precision@500 and +19% query generation accuracy over industry baselines, while sustaining stable performance after multi-week online training. This work demonstrates that LLM-generated synthetic search signals, when aligned and continually updated, unlock timely trend understanding in low-traffic search environments.