# Provably Robust Bayesian Counterfactual Explanations under Model Changes

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.16659 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.16659/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [MedMNIST v2 -- A large-scale lightweight benchmark for 2D and 3D biomedical image classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14795/) (2021)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations Guided by Prototypes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02584/) (2019)
- [MedMNIST Classification Decathlon: A Lightweight AutoML Benchmark for Medical Image Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14925/) (2020)
- [Online Learning: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.02871/) (2018)
- [Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.13620/) (2021)
- [Bayesian Layers: A Module for Neural Network Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03973/) (2018)
- [Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Neural Networks With Probabilistic Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11997/) (2023)
- [Generating Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations By Implicit Minimisation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.08951/) (2021)
- [GradDiv: Adversarial Robustness of Randomized Neural Networks via Gradient Diversity Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.02425/) (2021)
- [Robust Counterfactual Explanations in Machine Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01928/) (2024)
- [Counterfactual Explanations with Probabilistic Guarantees on their Robustness to Model Change](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04842/) (2024)
- [Faithful Model Explanations through Energy-Constrained Conformal Counterfactuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10648/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual Explanations for Model Ensembles Using Entropic Risk Measures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07934/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty Quantification as a Principled Foundation for Explainable Artificial Intelligence: A Case Study of Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17007/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [FCA-Guided Counterfactual Explanations for Multi-Modal Breast Cancer Diagnosis: A Framework Achieving Perfect Validity with Emergent Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.20067/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer interpretable insights into machine learning predictions by answering ``what if?" questions. However, in real-world settings where models are frequently updated, existing counterfactual explanations can quickly become invalid or unreliable. In this paper, we introduce Probabilistically Safe CEs (PSCE), a method for generating counterfactual explanations that are δ-safe, to ensure high predictive confidence, and ε-robust to ensure low predictive variance. Based on Bayesian principles, PSCE provides formal probabilistic guarantees for CEs under model changes which are adhered to in what we refer to as the langle δ, ε rangle-set. Uncertainty-aware constraints are integrated into our optimization framework and we validate our method empirically across diverse datasets. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art Bayesian CE methods, where PSCE produces counterfactual explanations that are not only more plausible and discriminative, but also provably robust under model change.