# From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15690 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15690/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 51 of its 78 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 51)

- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [TokenSkip: Controllable Chain-of-Thought Compression in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12067/) (2025)
- [When Can LLMs Actually Correct Their Own Mistakes? A Critical Survey of Self-Correction of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01297/) (2024)
- [Learning to Reason without External Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19590/) (2025)
- [The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Entropy Minimization in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15134/) (2025)
- [AlphaMath Almost Zero: Process Supervision without Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03553/) (2024)
- [Can 1B LLM Surpass 405B LLM? Rethinking Compute-Optimal Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06703/) (2025)
- [Right Question is Already Half the Answer: Fully Unsupervised LLM Reasoning Incentivization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05812/) (2025)
- [Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06233/) (2025)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [Easy-to-Hard Generalization: Scalable Alignment Beyond Human Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09472/) (2024)
- [Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09714/) (2024)
- [Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of their learned behaviors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.11120/) (2025)
- [SAC3: Reliable Hallucination Detection in Black-Box Language Models via Semantic-aware Cross-check Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01740/) (2023)
- [Reward Shaping to Mitigate Reward Hacking in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18770/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty-aware Reward Model: Teaching Reward Models to Know What is Unknown](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.00847/) (2024)
- [API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Access](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01216/) (2024)
- [ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00499/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: Theory Meets Practice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15326/) (2024)
- [Language Models in the Loop: Incorporating Prompting into Weak Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.02318/) (2022)
- [SMART: Self-Aware Agent for Tool Overuse Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11435/) (2025)
- [Demystifying Reasoning Dynamics with Mutual Information: Thinking Tokens are Information Peaks in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02867/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Autonomous Research Agents: A Survey of AI Scientists and the Verification Gap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05179/) (2026)
- [Prospective Hindsight: Self-Calibrating Reinforcement Learning via Prediction-Reality Gaps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.02740/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.