# TruthTensor: Evaluating LLMs through Human Imitation on Prediction Market under Drift and Holistic Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.13545 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13545/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 18 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jan 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [Humanity's Last Exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14249/) (2025)
- [CORE-Bench: Fostering the Credibility of Published Research Through a Computational Reproducibility Agent Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.11363/) (2024)
- [Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.16806/) (2025)
- [ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19839/) (2024)
- [INVESTORBENCH: A Benchmark for Financial Decision-Making Tasks with LLM-based Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.18174/) (2024)
- [FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.11987/) (2025)
- [MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01231/) (2024)
- [LLM-as-a-Prophet: Understanding Predictive Intelligence with Prophet Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17638/) (2025)
- [Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.18544/) (2024)
- [HumanEval-V: Benchmarking High-Level Visual Reasoning with Complex Diagrams in Coding Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12381/) (2024)
- [Confidence in the Reasoning of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15296/) (2024)
- [When Agents Trade: Live Multi-Market Trading Benchmark for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11695/) (2025)
- [LLM Agent Meets Agentic AI: Can LLM Agents Simulate Customers to Evaluate Agentic-AI-based Shopping Assistants?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21501/) (2025)
- [LiveTradeBench: Seeking Real-World Alpha with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.03628/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.04220/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Evaluating language models and AI agents remains fundamentally challenging because static benchmarks fail to capture real-world uncertainty, distribution shift, and the gap between isolated task accuracy and human-aligned decision-making under evolving conditions. This paper introduces TruthTensor, a novel, reproducible evaluation paradigm that measures reasoning models not only as prediction engines but as human-imitation systems operating in socially-grounded, high-entropy environments. Building on forward-looking, contamination-free tasks, our framework anchors evaluation to live prediction markets and combines probabilistic scoring to provide a holistic view of model behavior. TruthTensor complements traditional correctness metrics with drift-centric diagnostics and explicit robustness checks for reproducibility. It specify human vs. automated evaluation roles, annotation protocols, and statistical testing procedures to ensure interpretability and replicability of results. In experiments across 500+ real markets (political, economic, cultural, technological), TruthTensor demonstrates that models with similar forecast accuracy can diverge markedly in calibration, drift, and risk-sensitivity, underscoring the need to evaluate models along multiple axes (accuracy, calibration, narrative stability, cost, and resource efficiency). TruthTensor therefore operationalizes modern evaluation best practices, clear hypothesis framing, careful metric selection, transparent compute/cost reporting, human-in-the-loop validation, and open, versioned evaluation contracts, to produce defensible assessments of LLMs in real-world decision contexts. We publicly released TruthTensor at https://truthtensor.com.