# TrustEnergy: A Unified Framework for Accurate and Reliable User-level Energy Usage Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.13422 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13422/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Traffic Forecasting: A Unified Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05875/) (2022)
- [STUaNet: Understanding uncertainty in spatiotemporal collective human mobility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.06027/) (2021)
- [UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.08551/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [HealthMamba: An Uncertainty-aware Spatiotemporal Graph State Space Model for Effective and Reliable Healthcare Facility Visit Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05286/) (2026)
- [SynHAT: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Diffusion Framework for Synthesizing Human Activity Traces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14705/) (2026)
- [EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00506/) (2026)
- [MobiDiff: Semantic-Aware Multi-Channel Discrete Diffusion for Human Mobility Data Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08357/) (2026)
- [SynEnergy: Anomaly Semantic-Guided Diffusion for Synthetic Energy Data Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03087/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Energy usage prediction is important for various real-world applications, including grid management, infrastructure planning, and disaster response. Although a plethora of deep learning approaches have been proposed to perform this task, most of them either overlook the essential spatial correlations across households or fail to scale to individualized prediction, making them less effective for accurate fine-grained user-level prediction. In addition, due to the dynamic and uncertain nature of energy usage caused by various factors such as extreme weather events, quantifying uncertainty for reliable prediction is also significant, but it has not been fully explored in existing work. In this paper, we propose a unified framework called TrustEnergy for accurate and reliable user-level energy usage prediction. There are two key technical components in TrustEnergy, (i) a Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Representation module to efficiently capture both macro and micro energy usage patterns with a novel memory-augmented spatiotemporal graph neural network, and (ii) an innovative Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression module to dynamically adjust uncertainty bounds to ensure valid prediction intervals over time, without making strong assumptions about the underlying data distribution. We implement and evaluate our TrustEnergy framework by working with an electricity provider in Florida, and the results show our TrustEnergy can achieve a 5.4% increase in prediction accuracy and 5.7% improvement in uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art baselines.