# HT-GNN: Hyper-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Baidu Ads

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.13013 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13013/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Jan 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.00667/) (2022)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [Hypergraph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09401/) (2018)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [Structural-RNN: Deep Learning on Spatio-Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05298/) (2015)
- [GaAN: Gated Attention Networks for Learning on Large and Spatiotemporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.07294/) (2018)
- [Hypergraph Contrastive Collaborative Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.12200/) (2022)
- [Graph Neural Networks for temporal graphs: State of the art, open challenges, and opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01018/) (2023)
- [A3T-GCN: Attention Temporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11583/) (2020)
- [Heterogeneous Graph Contrastive Learning for Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.00995/) (2023)
- [Billion-user Customer Lifetime Value Prediction: An Industrial-scale Solution from Kuaishou](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.13358/) (2022)
- [Rankability-enhanced Revenue Uplift Modeling Framework for Online Marketing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15301/) (2024)
- [Out of the Box Thinking: Improving Customer Lifetime Value Modelling via Expert Routing and Game Whale Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12729/) (2023)
- [ADSNet: Cross-Domain LTV Prediction with an Adaptive Siamese Network in Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10517/) (2024)
- [Mini-Game Lifetime Value Prediction in WeChat](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11037/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Lifetime value (LTV) prediction is crucial for news feed advertising, enabling platforms to optimize bidding and budget allocation for long-term revenue growth. However, it faces two major challenges: (1) demographic-based targeting creates segment-specific LTV distributions with large value variations across user groups; and (2) dynamic marketing strategies generate irregular behavioral sequences where engagement patterns evolve rapidly. We propose a Hyper-Temporal Graph Neural Network (HT-GNN), which jointly models demographic heterogeneity and temporal dynamics through three key components: (i) a hypergraph-supervised module capturing inter-segment relationships; (ii) a transformer-based temporal encoder with adaptive weighting; and (iii) a task-adaptive mixture-of-experts with dynamic prediction towers for multi-horizon LTV forecasting. Experiments on textitBaidu Ads with 15 million users demonstrate that HT-GNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods across all metrics and prediction horizons.